Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Why Did Cheryl Mills Require Criminal Immunity?

ORIGINAL LINK

If there was no evidence of criminal activity, why all the immunity?

That is the awkward question that William McGurn asks in a Wall Street Journal op-ed today...

Why did Cheryl Mills require criminal immunity?

This is the irksome question hanging over the FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton’s home-brew server in the wake of news that Ms. Mills was granted immunity for her laptop’s contents.

Ms. Mills was a top Clinton aide at the State Department who became Mrs. Clinton’s lawyer when she left. She was also a witness, as well as a potential target, in the same FBI investigation into her boss’s emails. The laptop the bureau wanted was one Ms. Mills used in 2014 to sort Clinton emails before deciding which would be turned over to State.

Here’s the problem. There are two ways a witness can get immunity: Either she invokes the Fifth Amendment on the grounds she might incriminate herself, or, worried something on the laptop might expose her to criminal liability, her lawyers reveal what this might be before prosecutors agree to an immunity deal.

As with so much else in this investigation, the way the laptop was handled was out of the ordinary. Normally, immunity is granted for testimony and interviews. The laptop was evidence. Standard practice would have been for the FBI to get a grand-jury subpoena to compel Ms. Mills to produce it.

Andrew McCarthy, a former U.S. attorney, puts it this way: “It’s like telling a bank robbery suspect, ‘If you turn over that bag, I’ll give you immunity as to the contents’—which means if the money you robbed is in there, I can’t use it against you.”

The Mills immunity, which we learned of on Friday, has unfortunately been overwhelmed by the first Trump-Clinton debate. But the week is still young. On Wednesday, Congress will have an opportunity to put the Mills questions to FBI director James Comey when he appears before the House Judiciary Committee.

Back in July, Mr. Comey must have thought he’d settled the issue of Mrs. Clinton’s emails with a grandstanding press conference in which he asserted “no reasonable prosecutor” would bring a case against her based on what the FBI had found. In so doing, he effectively wrested the indictment decision (and any hope for political accountability) from the Justice Department. Plainly even his own agents weren’t buying, given that Mr. Comey later felt the need to issue an internal memo whining that he wasn’t being political.

Now we learn about the multiple immunity deals. Immunity in exchange for information that will help make the case against higher-ups is not unusual. Even so, the Mills deal carries a special stink.

To begin with, Ms. Mills was pretty high up herself. As Mrs. Clinton’s chief of staff, she was in the thick of operations. In 2012, while working at State, she traveled to New York to interview candidates for a top job at the Clinton Foundation.

More disturbing still, not only was Ms. Mills granted immunity for the content on her laptop, she was permitted to act as Mrs. Clinton’s attorney even though she herself was also a witness in the investigation.

This was allowed in part because she told the FBI she knew nothing of Mrs. Clinton’s private server until after she’d left the State Department. But this claim is suspect and contradicted by emails that have since emerged. These include one to Huma Abedin asking, “hrc email coming back—is server ok?”

The special treatment accorded Ms. Mills also reeks on a more fundamental level. As a rule, the Justice Department is aggressive about going after lawyers for any perceived conflict of interest. This would include, for example, a lawyer who wanted to represent different parties in a trial.

By giving Ms. Mills a pass to serve as Mrs. Clinton’s attorney in an investigation in which she was a material witness, Justice allowed her to shield her communications with Mrs. Clinton under attorney-client privilege. Indeed, Ms. Mills invoked that privilege during her own FBI interview.

Imagine Tom Hagen, the mob lawyer played by Robert Duvall in “The Godfather,” discussing with Don Corleone who was to get whacked—and then invoking the lawyer-client relationship to hush it up. Think of it this way and you begin to get the picture.

For those who think the fix was in from the start, Ms. Mills’s presence at Mrs. Clinton’s FBI interview, along with nine other people (not including the two FBI agents) is further evidence of a circus. Judiciary Committee members might do well to ask Mr. Comey why Ms. Mills and so many others were allowed to sit in on that interview.

In short, far from resolving Mrs. Clinton’s email case, the handling of the investigation has provoked questions about integrity of both the FBI and Justice. The big question for Mr. Comey remains this:

You publicly said there was no case for criminal charges. So what did Cheryl Mills need immunity for?



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Monday, September 26, 2016

"It All Has A Very 2008 Feel To It" - For Deutsche Bank, The News Just Keeps Getting Worse

ORIGINAL LINK

It has already been an abysmal day for Germany's biggest lender: overnight Deutsche Bank plunged to fresh all time lows on speculation whether the German government would or wouldn't provide state aid to the bank (if needed), forcing the bank to state it does not need the funds at the same time as the government urged markets that "you can't compare" Deutsche Bank and that "other" bank, Lehman Brothers, although looking at the chart, one may beg to differ.

 

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However, while DB stock closed at session lows, over 7% lower on the day, with its market cap of $16 billion now rapidly approaching the $14 billion litigation settlement demanded by the DOJ, the bad news did not stop there.

In a report issued an hour ago by Citigroup titled "Capital, Litigation & AT1 Coupon Risks", bank analyst Andrew Coombs says that Deutsche reported an end-June CET1 ratio of 11.2% pro-forma for the HXB stake sale, but still only targets c11% by end-2016 as further litigation charges are assumed, with management expecting to resolve four of the five major outstanding litigation cases this year. To this Citi says that it "struggles" to see how Deutsche Bank can reach the fully-loaded SREP requirement of 12.25% in the medium-term.

Furthermore Coombs notes that "the leverage ratio, at 3.4%, looks even worse relative to the 4.5% company target by 2018 and an IPO of Postbank looks increasingly challenging to execute upon."

Worse, he calculates that while he only models €2.9bn in litigation charges over 2H16-2017 - far less than the $14 billion settlement figure proposed by the DOJ - and includes a successful disposal of a 70% stake in Postbank at end-2017 for 0.4x book he still only reaches a CET 1 ratio of 11.6% by end-2018, meaning the bank would have a Tier 1 capital €3bn shortfall to the company target of 12.5%, and a leverage ratio of 3.9%, resulting in an €8bn shortfall to the target of 4.5%.

He then observes that while "management should be reluctant to raise capital with the bank trading on only 0.3x P/TB", the only viable alternative is to further cut balance sheet, which would be even more detrimental to earnings. As a result, he says that "a rights issue looks inevitable, in our view."

The most direct implication from this is that the bank's AT1 coupon is now once again at risk: "Deutsche has confirmed the HXB stake sale and HGB 340 e/g reserves would lift Available Distributable Item (ADI) reserve capacity to €4.3bn versus c€0.4bn of annual AT1 coupon payments. Deutsche can potentially create another €1-2bn from releasing some of its Dividend Blocked Amounts."

This would explain the ongoing deterioration in the bank's "loss buffer" contingent convertible bonds.

Ironically, the longer DB waits to address the market's concerns, not to mention its untenable balance sheet, the worse it will get. Citi's conclusion is that the bank now faces two "negative feedback loops."

We highlight two feedback loops: one short-term and one long-term. Widening credit spreads can exacerbate market fears, result in negative press coverage and damage counterparty confidence. The February tender offer for senior debt, coupled with a solid funding and liquidity position, has helped to address this loop. However a longer-term feedback loop still exists. Deutsche needs to raise capital in our view. It may choose to wait until litigation issues have been resolved, but the further the share price falls, the more dilutive a capital raise becomes (and vice versa).

Naturally, all of the above assumes a slow-burn scenario for DB stock. What happens if what happens next is a more aggressive liquidation of exposure? Well, in that case we would have something that the Telegraph's Matthew Lynn would dub a "German banking crisis."

Our image of German banks, and the German economy, as completely rock solid is so strong that it takes a lot to persuade us they might be in trouble.

Maybe so, but a "German banking crisis" would certainly delight the Italians, who have been on the receiving end of Germany's stern lecturing about "sticking to the rules," not to mention Schauble's insistence not to engage in state-funded bailouts in this day and age of mandatory bail-ins, and explains why Merkel's party has been so careful not to admit that a bailout may ultimately be the endgame.

Then again, Merkel's stated position opens up a can of worms. As Lynn correctly notes, "if the German government does not stand behind the bank, then inevitably all its counter-parties – the other banks and institutions it deals with – are going to start feeling very nervous about trading with it. As we know from 2008, once confidence starts to evaporate, a bank is in big, big trouble. In fact, if Deutsche does go down, it is looking increasingly likely that it will take Merkel with it – and quite possibly the euro as well."

Even without counterparty risk rearing its ugly head, the market appears to already be pricing it in.

The damage can be seen in its share price. Last October, the shares were at 27 euros. Back in 2007, they were over 100 euros, and even in the spring of 2009, when banks were crashing all across the world, they were still trading at close on 17 euros. For most of this year they have been sliding fast. On Monday, they crashed again, down another 6pc. Its bonds have slumped as well, while the cost of credit default swaps – essentially a way of hedging against a collapse – have jumped. It all has a very 2008 feel to it.

Indeed, but what is Merkel to do: admit that all the posturing about a stable banking system was just a lie, and the demands for Italy to get its house in order were sheer hypocrisy... or do what Allianz admitted that ultimately Deutsche Bank will have to be bailed out?

As Lynn points out, "there is something to be said for a hard-line position. It is hard to be sure the massive bank bail-outs of 2008 were such a great idea. Perhaps we would be better off now if a few had been allowed to fail. That said, Merkel is surely playing with fire. In the markets, investors, along with other financial institutions, have rightly or wrongly come to assume that major banks are, as the saying has it, ‘too big to fail’. You didn’t really have to worry about how solid they were, because if the crunch came the state would always ride to the rescue."

In Germany, that appears not to be the case – certainly for Deutsche, and possibly for its next biggest player, Commerzbank, which is hardly looking much healthier. Would you want to trade a few billion with Deutsche right now, and would you feel sure you’d get paid next month? Nope, thought not. The risk is that confidence evaporates – and as we know, once that is gone a bank is not long for this world.

To be sure, the politics of a Deutsche rescue would be terrible. Germany, with is Chancellor taking the lead, has set itself up as the guardian of financial responsibility within the euro-zone. Two years ago, it casually let the Greek bank system go to the wall, allowing the cash machines to be closed down as a way of whipping the rebellious Syriza government back into line. This year, there has been an unfolding Italian crisis, as bad debts mount, and yet Germany has insisted on enforcing euro-zone rules that say depositors have to shoulder some of the losses when a bank is in trouble.

And this is why Merkel is cornered: "for Germany to then turn around and say, actually we are bailing out our own bank, while letting everyone else’s fail, looks, to put it mildly, just a little inconsistent. Heck, a few people might even start to wonder if there was one rule for Germany, and another one for the rest. In truth, it would become impossible to maintain a hard-line in Italy, and probably in Greece as well."

"And yet" Lynn adds, "if Deutsche Bank went down, and the German Government didn’t step in with a rescue, that would be a huge blow to Europe’s largest economy – and the global financial system. No one really knows where the losses would end up, or what the knock-on impact would be. It would almost certainly land a fatal blow to the Italian banking system, and the French and Spanish banks would be next. Even worse, the euro-zone economy, with France and Italy already back at zero growth, and still struggling with the impact of Brexit, is hardly in any shape to withstand a shock of that magnitude."

What we do know is that if some €42 trillion in derivatives - some three times more than the GDP of the European Union - were to suddenly lose their counterparty, the systemic damage would be unprecedented.

 

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And just like that, Germany finds itself in the same position the Fed and US Government were in September 2008: let the bank fail and deal with the devastating consequences, or inject a few more billion and keep the bank alive for a few more quarters. Indeed, "the politics of a rescue are terrible, but the economics of a collapse are even worse. By ruling out a rescue, she may well have solved the immediate political problem. Yet when the crisis gets worse, as it may do at any moment, it is impossible to believe she will stick to that line. A bailout of some sort will be cobbled together – even if the damage to Merkel’s already fraying reputation for competence will be catastrophic."

Lynn's conclusion is spot on:

Merkel is playing a very dangerous game with Deutsche – and one that could easily go badly wrong. If her refusal to sanction a bail-out is responsible for a Deutsche collapse that could easily end her Chancellorship. But if she rescues it, the euro might start to unravel. It is hardly surprising that the markets are watching the relentless decline in its share price with mounting horror.

In retrospect, the irony is delightful: for so many years the markets erroneously focusing only on the periphery as the source of potential banking contagion, when the biggest ticking time bomb in Europe's banking sector was smack in the middle of what was considered the safest and most stable country, until now.... or as we put it in 2014: "The Elephant In The Room: Deutsche Bank's $75 Trillion In Derivatives Is 20 Times Greater Than German GDP"



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Out of Plato’s Cave with Paul Verge : Unplugged Mom

Out of Plato’s Cave with Paul Verge : Unplugged Mom: "What has the mis-education from the school system done to us? What is Plato’s Cave and how can we find our way out? "



What has the mis-education from the school system done to us? What is Plato’s Cave and how can we find our way out?



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The American solution: Arresting people is the U.S. take on justice

ORIGINAL LINK


This Wednesday July 22, 2015 photo shows the inside of the Waller County jail in Hempstead, Texas. (Credit: AP)
This piece originally appeared on TomDispatch.
You’ve heard of distracted driving? It causes quite a few auto accidents and it’s illegal in a majority of states.
Well, this year, a brave New Jersey state senator, a Democrat, took on the pernicious problem of distracted walking. Faced with the fact that some people can’t tear themselves away from their smartphones long enough to get across a street in safety, Pamela Lampitt of Camden, New Jersey, proposed a law making it a crime to cross a street while texting. Violators would face a fine, and repeat violators up to 15 days in jail. Similar measures, says the Washington Post, have been proposed (though not passed) in Arkansas, Nevada, and New York. This May, a bill on the subject made it out of committee in Hawaii.
That’s right. In several states around the country, one response to people being struck by cars in intersections is to consider preemptively sending some of those prospective accident victims to jail. This would be funny, if it weren’t emblematic of something larger. We are living in a country where the solution to just about any social problem is to create a law against it, and then punish those who break it.
I’ve been teaching an ethics class at the University of San Francisco for years now, and at the start of every semester, I always ask my students this deceptively simple question: What’s your definition of justice?
As you might expect in a classroom where half the students are young people of color, up to a third are first-generation college goers, and maybe a sixth come from outside the United States, the answers vary. For some students, justice means “standing up for the little guy.” For many, it involves some combination of “fairness” and “equality,” which often means treating everyone exactly the same way, regardless of race, gender, or anything else. Others display a more sophisticated understanding. An economics major writes, for instance,
“People are born unequal in genetic potential, financial and environmental stability, racial prejudice, geographic conditions, and nearly every other facet of life imaginable. I believe that the aim of a just society is to enable its citizens to overcome or improve their inherited inequalities.”
A Danish student compares his country to the one where he’s studying:
“The Danish welfare system is constructed in such a way that people pay more in taxes and the government plays a significant role in the country. We have free healthcare, education and financial aid to the less fortunate. Personally, I believe this is a just system where we take care of our own.”
For a young Latino, justice has a cosmic dimension:
“My sense of justice tends to revolve around my idea that the universe and life are so grand and inexplicable that everything you put into it comes back to you. This I can trace to my childhood, when my mother would tell me to do everything in life with ‘love, faith, and courage.’ Ever since, I believe that any action or endeavor that is guided by these three qualities can be considered just.”
Justice is punishment
The most common response to my question, however, brings us back to those street-crossing texters. For most of my students — for most Americans in fact — justice means establishing the proper penalties for crimes committed. “Justice for me,” says one, “is defined by the punishment of wrongdoing.” Students may add that justice must be impartial, but their primary focus is always on retribution. “Justice,” as another put it, “is a rational judgment involving fairness in which the wrongdoer receives punishment deserving of his/her crime.”
When I ask where their ideas about justice come from, they often mention the punishments (“fair” or otherwise) meted out by their families when they were children. These experiences, they say, shaped their adult desire to do the right thing so that they will not be punished, whether by the law or the universe. Religious upbringing plays a role as well. Some believe in heavenly rewards for good behavior, and especially in the righteousness of divine punishment, which they hope and generally expect to escape through good behavior.
Often, when citing the sources of their beliefs about justice, students point to police procedurals like the now-elderly CSI and Law and Order franchises. These provide a sanitary model of justice, with generally tidy hour-long depictions of crime and punishment, of perps whose punishment is usually relatively swift and righteous.
Certainly, many of my students are aware that the U.S. criminal justice system falls far short of impartiality and fairness. Strangely, however, they seldom mention that this country has 2.2 million people in prison or jail; or that it imprisons the largest proportion of people in the world; or that, with 4 percent of the global population, it holds 22 percent of the world’s prisoners; or that these prisoners are disproportionately brown and black. Their concern is less about those who are in prison and perhaps shouldn’t be, than about those who are not in prison and ought to be.
They are (not unreasonably) offended when rich or otherwise privileged people avoid punishment for crimes that would send others to jail. At the height of the Great Recession, their focus was on the Wall Street bankers who escaped prosecution for their part in inflating the housing bubble that brought the global economy to its knees. This fall, for several of them, Exhibit A when it comes to justice denied is the case of former Stanford student Brock Turner, recently released after serving a mere three months for sexually assaulting an unconscious woman. They are (perhaps properly) outraged by what they perceive as a failure of justice in Turner’s case. But they are equally convinced of something I struggle with — that a harsher sentence for Turner would have been a step in the direction of making his victim whole faster. They are far more convinced than I am that punishment is always the best way for a community to hold responsible those who violate its rules and values.
In this, they are in good company in the U.S.
There oughta be a law
Of course, the urge to extend punishment to every sort of socially disapproved behavior, including texting in a crosswalk, is hardly a new phenomenon. Since the founding of the United States, government at every level has tended to make unpopular behavior illegal. Just to name a few obvious examples of past prohibitions now likely to stop us in our tracks: at various times there have been laws against having sex outside marriage, distributing birth control, or marrying across races (as highlighted in the new movie Loving).
In 1919, for instance, a constitutional amendment was ratified outlawing the making, shipping, or selling of alcohol (although it didn’t last long). You might think that the experience of Prohibition, including the rise of violent gangs feeding on the illegal liquor trade, would have given us a hint about the likely effects of outlawing other mind-bending substances, but no such luck.
One big difference between the 18th Amendment and today’s drug laws was that, although Prohibition outlawed traffic in alcohol, it didn’t mention consumption. No one got arrested for drinking. By comparison, as the Huffington Post reported last year,
“Law enforcement officers made just over 700,000 arrests on marijuana-related charges in 2014… Of that total, 88.4 percent — or about 619,800 arrests — were made for marijuana possession alone, a rate of about one arrest every 51 seconds over the entire year.”
One marijuana arrest every 51 seconds. It should be no surprise, then, that drug possession is a major reason why people end up in debt (from court-imposed fines), locked up, or both — but hardly the only reason. Punishment is the response of choice for all kinds of behavior, including drinking in public (which is why people wrap their beer bottles in paper bags and kids who look up to them do the same with their soda cans), indecent exposure, “lewd conduct,” prostitution, gambling, and all kinds of petty theft.
But doesn’t punishing undesirable behavior have a deterrent effect, and more and harsher punishment increase that effect? This is obviously a hard thing to measure, but there is data available suggesting that lighter penalties for a particular crime do not necessarily result in more of that crime.
Take petty theft. Different states have different thresholds for what counts as “petty” and what is the more serious crime of “grand” larceny. Petty theft is usually classified as a misdemeanor, a category of crime that carries sentences of up to a year in a county jail. Above a certain dollar amount, thefts become felonies, which means those convicted serve at least a year — and often many years — in state prison. Depending on the state, some felons also lose their voting rights for life. Those convicted of federal felonies may not serve on juries, may not be able to work for the federal government, and are often not permitted to work for labor unions. A felony conviction is a big deal.
The Pew Charitable Trusts wondered what would happen if states treated fewer thefts as felonies by raising the dollar cutoff for a felony prosecution. Pew asked: Would there be more minor theft because the penalties were lower? (Some state felony thresholds were, in fact, shockingly low. Until 2001, in Oklahoma, stealing anything worth more than $50 would throw you into that category. Even that state’s new limit, $500, is still on the low side.)
The Pew researchers examined “crime trends in 23 states” that have raised the dollar threshold for felony theft and concluded that it had “no impact on overall property crime or larceny rates.” In fact, since 2007 property theft has been declining across the country, with no difference between states with higher and lower felony thresholds. So at least in the case of petty theft, threatening to send fewer people to state prison does not seem to raise the crime rate.
What’s the alternative?
In the late 1980s, the United Kingdom’s first woman prime minister, Margaret Thatcher, adopted the slogan “there is no alternative,” often shortened to TINA. In Thatcher’s case, she meant that there was no imaginable economic alternative to her campaign to destroy the power of unions, deregulate everything in sight, and gut the British welfare state. It’s hard indeed to imagine other ways of organizing things when there is — or at least is believed to be — no alternative. It’s hard to imagine a justice system that doesn’t rely primarily on the threat of punishment when, for most Americans, no alternative is imaginable. But what if there were alternatives to keeping 2.2 million people in cages that didn’t make the rest of us less safe, that might actually improve our lives?
Portugal has tried one such alternative. In 2001, as the Washington Post reported, that country “decriminalized the use of all drugs” and decided to treat drug addiction as a public health problem rather than a criminal matter. The results? Portugal now has close to the lowest rate of drug-induced deaths in Europe — three overdose deaths a year per million people. By comparison, at 45 deaths per million population, the United Kingdom’s rate is more than 14 times greater. In addition, HIV infections have also declined in Portugal, unlike, for example, in the rural United States where a heroin epidemic has the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention worried about the potential for skyrocketing infection rates.
All right, but drug use has often been called a “victimless” crime. Maybe it doesn’t make sense to lock up people who are really only hurting themselves. What about crimes like theft or assault, where the victims are other people? Isn’t punishment a social necessity then?
If you’d asked me that question a few years ago, I would probably have agreed that there are no alternatives to prosecution and punishment in response to such crimes. That was before I met Rachel Herzing, a community organizer who worked for the national prison-abolition group Critical Resistance for 15 years. I invited her to my classes to listen to my students talk about crime, policing, and punishment. She then asked them to imagine the impossible — other methods besides locking people up that a community could use to restore itself to wholeness.
This is the approach taken by the international movement for restorative justice. The Washington, D.C.-based Centre for Justice and Reconciliation describes it this way: “Restorative justice repairs the harm caused by crime. When victims, offenders, and community members meet to decide how to do that, the results can be transformational.”
Similarly, “transitional justice” is the name given to a range of measures taken in countries that have suffered national traumas, including ethnic cleansing and other massive human rights violations. According to the International Center for Transitional Justice, such measures to heal a wounded country and deal with often terrible crimes do “include criminal prosecutions,” but the emphasis is often placed on “truth commissions, reparations programs, and various kinds of institutional reforms,” or even, as the Centre for Justice and Reconciliation suggests, “meetings between victims, offenders, and other persons” to emphasize accountability and make amends.
The most famous of such experiments has undoubtedly been South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission. From 1948 to 1994, South Africa operated under the official policy of apartheid, the legal separation of South Africans into four different racial categories with four different levels of rights. The South African government employed all the usual tools of state terrorism — murder, torture, beatings, incarceration, and daily repression — to keep the oppressed majority out of power. Eventually, international sanctions and internal resistance, followed by an extraordinary negotiation between African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela and then-president F.W. De Klerk, brought a peaceful end to apartheid.
In 1994, after Mandela had become president and the crimes of that country’s white regime were at an end, that Truth and Reconciliation Commission was established to confront the country’s history of apartheid atrocities. Behind that process was a recognition that there could be no peaceable future without a public acknowledgement of the harm that had been done by those who had done it. In South Africa, even torturers and murderers under the apartheid system were granted amnesties for their crimes as part of a social healing process, but only after they had publicly admitted their actions and genuinely asked for forgiveness. It was not punishment but the acknowledgement of wrongdoing that marked the beginning of justice in that country and it seemed to work for many of those who had suffered grievously under apartheid.
A similar approach might work in the United States. Indeed, it already happens all the time on a small scale around the country, through community mediation services. These organizations help neighbors settle disputes that might otherwise result in a trip to civil courts or the pressing of criminal charges. An important aspect of the process is listening to and acknowledging the harm others have experienced. It might be possible to expand this kind of mediation to address more serious instances of harm to individuals or a community, and to work out means of restitution that did not involve prison time.
There are other alternatives to punishment as well. For example, as Critical Resistance suggests, instead of training police forces to “deal” with people experiencing mental health breakdowns by arresting them and putting them in the “justice” system, we might begin to treat such events as what they are: health crises. It’s a horror that jails and prisons have become the biggest mental “hospitals” in the country — with the Justice Department reporting that half of those now incarcerated have some form of mental illness.
Some communities have also begun to question the wisdom of the “broken windows” approach to policing first proposed by criminal justice scholar George Kelling and political scientist James Q. Wilson. They argued that when the police enforce laws and informal rules against nuisance behavior in neighborhoods, reductions in more serious crimes followed. In their seminal 1982 article on the subject in the Atlantic, Kelling and Wilson suggested that just as an “untended” building with one broken window was eventually likely to end up with all its windows broken, “‘untended’ behavior also leads to the breakdown of community controls.” They wrote approvingly of a police officer who made a habit of arresting for vagrancy anyone who broke the “informal rules” of the neighborhood to which he was assigned — by begging for money at a bus stop or drinking alcohol from an unwrapped container or on the sidewalk of a major street.
Bill Bratton, New York City’s just-retired police chief, championed this “broken windows” approach to policing, including a race-based “stop-and-frisk” policy in which police searched New Yorkers on the streets of their city five million times between 2002 and 2015. Nearly 90 percent of those stopped were, according to the New York Civil Liberties Union, “completely innocent” of anything and of the remaining 10%, only one-quarter, or 2.5 percent of all stops, resulted in convictions — most often for marijuana possession. But hundreds of thousands of people, mostly young African American and Latino men, lived with the expectation that, at any time, the police might stop them on the street in a humiliating display of power. In a landmark 2013 decision, a New York federal court found the police department’s stop-and-frisk policy unconstitutional.
Here’s another idea: Even people of goodwill who are not yet ready to jump on any prison abolition bandwagon might agree that we could stop sending people to jail for many misdemeanors.
In my state, California, there were 762,002 arrests for misdemeanors in 2014 alone. Of these, 92,469 were for drug possession, 1,265 for glue sniffing (a “crime” of the truly poor and desperate), and another 90,061 for being drunk in public. The largest single category, however, was driving under the influence, or DUI, with 151,416 arrests. That’s a total of almost 335,000 people arrested in one state in one year for crimes connected with the use of either legal or illegal drugs. Add to that the 58,569 people arrested for petty theft, imagine similar figures across the country, and you can see how the jails might begin to fill with record-setting numbers of prisoners.
Even when never convicted, those arrested often end up spending time in jail because they can’t afford bail. And spending time in jail can cost you your job, your children, even your home. That’s a lot of punishment for someone who hasn’t been convicted of a crime. In August 2016, the U.S. Justice Department filed documents in federal court arguing that holding people in jail because they can’t afford to bail themselves out is unconstitutional — a major move toward real justice.
So the next time you find yourself thinking idly that there oughta be a law — against not giving up your seat on a bus to someone who needs it more, or playing loud music in a public place, or panhandling — stop for a moment and think again. Yes, such things can be unpleasant for other people, but maybe there’s a just alternative to punishing those who do them.
I’ll leave the last words to a student of mine, who wrote, “My definition of justice is some sort of restitution and admission of wrongdoing from someone who wronged you in the past… My family has influenced my definition of justice in teaching me that even if someone does something wrong there should always be room for forgiveness and, if they are sincere, forgive them and that is justice.”
Now, it’s your turn to define the term — and so our world.
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The Lost Generation: Forget Hillary Clinton’s millennial problem — millennials have a problem we all need to fix

ORIGINAL LINK


Bernie Sanders supporters shout slogans at the 2016 Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, July 28, 2016. (Credit: Reuters/Adrees Latif)
As Donald Trump and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton prepare to debate later tonight  at Hofstra University, multiple surveys indicate that the voting group most up for grabs is the nation’s millennial voters, who could likely decide whose the next President.
Last spring the U.S. Census reported that 18 to 34 year olds outnumbered  baby boomers, making the millennials America’s largest generational voting block.
They are also the most racially diverse. Almost one in five is Latino or Hispanic, 13 percent are African American and 6 percent Asian according to the GenForward Survey, produced by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago and the Associated Press NORC Center for Public Affairs.
While the same survey indicates that Clinton is favored by these younger voters, it also indicates that “nearly a majority” of those surveyed perceived her as dishonest. A majority of those same young voters surveyed consider Trump a racist.
SO JUST WHERE DID THE OPTIMISM OF YOUTH GO?
Where Trump may have a small opening is in the collective assessment, across all racial categories in the GenForward Survey, that the United States is either falling behind, or outright failing.
Among whites, 56 percent say the country is falling behind, while more than one in four say the country is actually failing. The story isn’t so different with African-American, Asian and Latino millennials — two thirds think the nation is loosing ground or failing.
This  pessimistic outlook is completely understandable.
For these younger  voters their American experience has been defined by the September 11th attacks, the never ending war that followed, and the Great Recession, the worst economic decline since the Depression.
In 2014, the Council of Economic Advisors identified the lingering impact of the Great Recession on the millennials as a long-term issue: Millennials “lives were shaped by the experience of establishing careers at a time when economic opportunities” were “relatively scarce” even though the economy was “well into its recovery” leaving its mark on this age group for years to come according to the panel that advises the President.
While boosters of President Obama pointed with pride at the latest federal data that showed a decline in poverty and an increase in the median household income, household incomes were still below their pre-recession level, and well shy of their 1999 historical high.
THE AMERICAN DREAM DEFERRED AS CAPITAL SCREWS LABOR
This aggregate national data does not capture the sorry state of the millennial cohort, nor offer insights into their  sense that for them the so called American Dream has been deferred.
For decades, as a nation, we emphasized just how essential a college education was to a successful life and then made it so expensive that college debt has exploded from $260 billion in 2004 to $1.36 trillion.
At the same time, the market value of that college degree — what it would earn the graduate — has declined. Earlier this year the Center for American Progress issued a multi-decade analysis of wages and total compensation earned by 30 year-olds. What they found was that a 30 year-old today was making less than a 30 year-old ten years ago, adding that “a 30 year-old today makes about what 30 year old did in 1984” despite the fact that it was 50 percent more likely the young adult today had finished college and was working in an economy that was 70 percent more productive.
No doubt the younger workers were not exempt from the broader betrayal of the American worker since the 1970s. This year the Economic Policy Institute reported that from 1973 until last year, while productivity had increased by over 73 percent, actual hourly pay for workers had only gone up by 11 percent — or more precisely, productivity had grown by more than six times the wages actually earned by workers.
“ALL IN THE FAMILY” — TAKE TWO
The confluence of these historical trends, which were in many cases decades in the making, has radically altered the American household. According to the Pew Research center for the first time in 130 years  millennials  are now more likely to be living at home home with their parents than “living with a spouse or partner in their own household.”
In the most recent American Community Survey, out earlier this month, New Jersey led the nation in this mega trend, with 47 percent of millennials living at home with their parents.
In New Jersey’s Hunterdon County  over 60 percent of millennials are still at home. “When you extrapolate the trends in Hunterdon County you’ll have two types of adults in the future; the unwed and nearly dead,” said James Hughes is the Dean of Rutger’s Bloustein School of Planning and Policy and a expert on economic trends.
Hughes says the aftermath of the Great Recession has been particularly hard on millennials. “Basically, we have a situation where millennials have heavy student debt which takes a big bite out of their monthly paycheck,” Hughes told Salon. “They have very high bills in information technology for their cell phones and lap tops and tablets and the job market has not been particularly kind to them.”
“You put that together in the context that NJ has some of the highest hosing costs in the nation and they are stuck home with their parents,” said Hughes.
Nationally about a third of millennials are living with their parents, but in addition to New Jersey, there are eleven other states including New York, Florida, California, Pennsylvania and Illinois.where the percentage of millennials living with their parents is higher.
All totaled the states above the national average have 205 electoral votes.
A CRISIS IN AFFORDABILITY POLLSTERS ARE MISSING
The delay in household formation among millennials has generational consequences and is playing out in the context of a continuing affordability crisis that the federal poverty data misses, according to John Franklin, CEO of the United Way of Northern New Jersey.
Franklin says what’s not taken into account is that many of the post-Great Recession jobs that have been created come with lower wages, irregular hours and often with no benefits.
“What we have learned is that the opportunity for improving your life is very difficult because 52  percent of the population in New Jersey is living on less than $20 bucks an hour income,” Franklin told Salon, “and three quarters of them are living on $15 an hour or less.”
Franklin says the United Way’s research has identified a major percentage of the population, both here in New Jersey and several other states, that may not fall below the poverty line, but who never the less struggle paycheck to paycheck. In an effort to put a human face on this stressed cohort the United Way calls these kinds of families ALICE households.
“ALICE stands for asset limited, income constrained—employed,” Franklin said. “Both parts are important. The asset limited is important because you have nothing to fall back on and income constrained is very obvious. Your not making enough to make ends meet.”
The United Way’s ALICE research includes the cost of daycare, shelter, taxes, transportation, all things not captured in the poverty data that vary greatly  between different states and even within cities in the same state.
“If you look at Connecticut for example the ALICE population is 34 percent below what we call the ALICE threshold but 68 percent in Hartford, 46 percent in state of Florida,” says Franklin. “Brackets change a bit so what defines  an ALICE threshold in Indiana is not what it is in New Jersey. But you still end up with the same phenomenon which is more than a third of the population is living below what we call the ALICE threshold which is a very bare bones budget.”
A SINGLE MOM AND THE FADED URGENCY OF NOW
Michelle Leonard sits outside her place of employment, a supermarket in Morris County, New Jersey where she works full time. Leonard, 35, is a single mother, who says she struggles week to week to support herself and her four year old- Claudia Rose on less than$9 an hour.  She says she is constantly battling with welfare officials not to penalize her for working, even though she’s just barely making over the minimum wage.
“They will pay for my day care  but I just received a letter saying because of how much I make now I now have to pay $18 a week for my daycare,” Leonard told Salon. “I no longer get housing because they say I make to much at $8.98 an hour. I don’t know how they figure that but they did.”
Leonard says she doesn’t think the news media reflects the reality of her day to day struggle and as a consequence politicians don’t address it either.
“I believe that most people who report on these things have never lived the life. They don’t know what it is to grow up poor — living paycheck to paycheck,” said Leonard. “They don’t understand what it is to struggle to make ends meet or to make sure that your children are fed while you sit there and starve. Because you can’t afford a meal for two you would rather your child eat. You can go for days with out eating because of the struggle of the finances. It is so hard.”
Leonard says that if she got paid $15 an hour — the rate now being touted as a national living wage — her life, and her daughter’s life would both be radically transformed.
“If I made $15 an hour that would pay my rent — provide food in my house for a month and that would give me a little extra money to save in the bank for some type of emergency,” said Leonard. “That’s  what $15 an hour would so. it would help me ten fold.”
MILLENNIALS AT THE CROSSROADS
Historically, younger Americans lag voter participation, but in 2008 the watershed candidacy of Barack Obama inspired a majority of them to turn out and support him.
By 2012 their enthusiasm had waned with just 45 percent bothering to vote. However,  the fact they did turnout strongly in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Philadelphia, and Broward County, Florida gave the President his electoral margin of victory.
For millennials, America is very much a “stucknation” mired in intractable wars overseas and in a model of global trade that puts capital over labor, delivers increasing wealth inequality here at home and environmental degradation around the world.
For most of the millennials’ adult life Washington has been mired in a scorched earth battle where the opponents fund themselves by vilifying each other on a daily basis. For America’s boomers, like myself, our memories include moments memorialized by those now faded black and white photos of members of both parties flanking President Johnson signing the 1964 Civil Rights Act.
The millennials were not alive for that national can-do moment in 1969 when we all stopped whatever we doing to watch our fellow Americans walk on the moon.
Unfortunately, merely repeating the bromide “make America great again”over and over will transport us back to the time in the 1950s when the American middle class was thriving. The circumstances that produced those huge gains in household income included a World War and the decimation of our rival industrial powers who relied in us to restore them.
We were masters of that universe, but we can’t bring it back.
Millennials know better than most that automation is radically changing the world of work in ways that are already causing major economic dislocation. As polar ice caps melt, and the signs of global warming become increasingly manifest, we have to reframe what we mean by prosperity.
No, this is about imagining an America yet to be.


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Trump’s Threat to the Constitution: New at Reason

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Trump wallFor a Republican presidential nominee, Donald Trump has shown an unprecedented aptitude for alienating Republicans. Mitt Romney isn't voting for him. George W. Bush has declined to endorse him. George H.W. Bush reportedly will vote for Hillary Clinton.

Many people in his party have repudiated Trump's comments on race, immigration, Vladimir Putin and more. But among those who support him, there is one decisive, last-resort justification: Trump would appoint conservative Supreme Court justices who would uphold the Constitution, and Hillary Clinton would not.

What makes them so sure? If there is anything clear from his tweets and speeches, it's that he has no more regard for the Constitution than he does for the creditors he stiffed in his many bankruptcies. Steve Chapman explains more.

View this article.



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National Study Debunks Helena Smoking Ban Miracle (Again)

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If the people who promote the idea that smoking bans immediately slash heart attacks were interested in the truth, as opposed to another argument for a policy they already support, a study published this month in the journal Medical Care Research and Review would make them retract that outlandish, biologically implausible claim. Looking at county-level data from 28 states, the study finds "smoking bans were not associated with acute myocardial infarction or heart failure hospitalizations."

That will come as a surprise to anyone who accepted the propaganda peddled by anti-smoking activists at face value. Since 2003, when supporters of a smoking ban in Helena, Montana, announced that the ordinance had miraculously cut heart attacks in half during the first six months it was in effect, such claims have become conventional wisdom within the tobacco control movement. They were even endorsed by the Institute of Medicine, a division of the National Academy of Sciences, in an embarrassing 2009 report that disregarded obvious methodological problems and replaced science with wishful thinking.

As Rice University health economist Vivian Ho and the other authors of the new study point out, "Each of the studies the Institute of Medicine reviewed had at least one important limitation, such as a small study population, lack of a contemporaneous control population, or failure to account for the full range of factors that could influence hospitalizations for smoking-related conditions, such as increased cigarette taxes and local patient and health care market characteristics." Ho et al., by contrast, studied 390 counties that adopted "comprehensive public place smoking bans" from 2001 through 2008, along with 1,511 counties that did not. They controlled for potential confounding variables such as cigarette tax rates and local demographics, and they took into account pre-existing local trends.

Heart disease death rates have been declining for decades in the United States, so a drop in the hospitalization rate for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) after the implementation of a smoking ban could be due to that nationwide trend rather than any local development. Furthermore, thousands of jurisdictions around the world have adopted smoking bans, and some of them were bound to see above-average reductions in AMI admissions afterward purely by chance. Focusing just on those places, as anti-smoking activists tend to do, creates a misleading impression. And even if it turned out that jurisdictions with smoking bans tended to see bigger reductions in AMI hospitalization rates than other jurisdictions, that difference could be caused by factors other than the ordinances. Ho et al. found, for example, that jurisdictions adopting bans during the study period tended to tax cigarettes more heavily in 2001 and impose larger tax hikes by 2008.

"In adjusted analyses that accounted for cigarette tax rates and population and health care market characteristics," the researchers report, "comprehensive public place smoking bans were not associated with lower AMI or heart failure hospitalization rates." As they note, that result is consistent with the findings of another national study, published by the Journal of Policy Analysis and Management in 2010, in which Kanaka Shetty and his colleagues at the RAND Corporation found "smoking bans are not associated with statistically significant short-term declines in mortality or hospital admissions for myocardial infarction or other diseases." Although those data were available in a working paper when the Institute of Medicine studied the issue, they were conveniently omitted from its report. Ho et al. say their study, while reaching essentialy the same conclusion as Shetty et al., is stronger because it used comprehensive hospitalization data rather than the 20 percent sample on which the earlier analysis relied.

"Contrary to most previous studies, we found no evidence that comprehensive public place smoking bans lowered hospitalization rates in the short term for AMI or heart failure," Ho et al. write. "The relative absence of studies concluding that smoking bans do not lower hospitalization rates may be due to publication bias." They note that Shetty et al. "found that large short-term increases in AMI incidence following a smoking ban are as common as the large decreases reported in the published literature." Overeager advocates of smoking bans created the illusion that such ordinances are typically followed by dramatic declines in AMI admissions by highlighting the places where that happened and ignoring the places where it didn't, including the places where admissions actually went up.

Ho et al. conclude that "public health officials must maintain a realistic perspective of the potential benefits and their timing when considering the effects of multiple policies to reduce smoking." Boston University public health professor Michael Siegel, who supports smoking bans but has often criticized allies who oversell their benefits, is less diplomatic. Promoters of the supposed Helena miracle "were able to disseminate their pre-determined conclusions widely to the public through the media long enough for the conclusions to be generally accepted," he writes. "Now, it is too late to undo the damage. The media and the public have already made up their minds, and one article noting the results of this new study is not going to correct or undo 10 years of dissemination of unsupported and errant scientific conclusions."



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An American tragedy: The real cost of denying people choice in education

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In this Tuesday, June 7, 2016 photo, students walk into the Waukegan High School's Brookside campus in Waukegan, Ill. The district struggled to meet the needs of its students even before the foreclosure crisis left blocks dotted with empty homes and businesses. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski) (Credit: AP)
As Charlotte, N.C. erupted into racially-charged riots, sadly the conversation hasn’t turned to concrete ways to mitigate the cultural and socioeconomic forces that trap many people of color in failing schools. And once these kids fail in school, this ensnares them in a downward spiral. As the American Psychological Association reports, compared to high school graduates, dropouts are less likely find a job and earn a living wage, and more likely to be poor, suffer from a variety of adverse health outcomes, rely on public assistance, engage in crime and generate other social costs borne by taxpayers.
In Charlotte, the Observer reports that 43 of 165 schools had overall pass rates below 50 percent and that last year those schools served 33,500 students, most of them poor and 95 percent of them nonwhite. With such a failing system, it’s no wonder that the city is on edge. Schools in Baltimore and Ferguson have similar outcomes. Correlation doesn’t imply causation, yet when children of color from poor backgrounds are entrapped in failing schools it’s no wonder that years later we find them rioting in the streets. Right now, we don’t empower parents the choice to send their children to better schools. We are an anti-choice country in this respect.
While much is reported, analyzed and even sung about the cradle-to-prison pipeline, we have yet to build a successful national agenda for strengthening the nuclear family and expanding school choice — a value cherished nationwide by millions of parents and children, many of them black and brown. Indeed, that’s why the waiting lists alone for charter schools have more than 1 million names.
A case study of these forces is Tanya McDowell, a homeless African-American woman arrested and sentenced to prison five years, in part, for educating her son. Though McDowell had also reportedly engaged in other criminal acts (including selling drugs and promoting prostitution) beyond enrolling her son in a public school, her case represents an appalling coalescence of the forces underlying the racial tensions not only in Charlotte but in Baltimore, Ferguson and elsewhere.
McDowell was reportedly homeless, floating among various homeless shelters and living in a van in Norwalk, Conn., while her young son attended classes at Brookside Elementary School in Norwalk. Because she had no permanent residence in the school district and her last mailing address was in nearby Bridgeport, Conn., she was charged with first-degree larceny and conspiracy to commit first-degree larceny for allegedly stealing $15,686 from Norwalk schools.
If McDowell and her family had access to better educational options, this outrageous case could have been avoided. Bridgeport’s schools are among the worst performing in the state, and the city has a poverty rate of nearly 24 percent compared to 15 percent nationwide. Often these schools like Bridgeport with student bodies from predominately challenged socioeconomic backgrounds are chaotic and violent — academic subjects are often the last thing on anyone’s mind. Survival trumps studying, gangs replace peer study groups, drugs and booze supplant the euphoria and endorphin release of team sports and other extracurricular and artistic activities.
I experienced some of this chaos firsthand as a middle school student in the troubled public schools of Kansas City, Mo. — a system so awful it was stripped of accreditation by the state of Missouri. Before school began, my classmates and I spent hours lined up outside the buildings, waiting for metal detectors and security guards to search our belongings for weapons and drugs. These were majority minority schools, where many students resorting to fistfights, sometimes even threatening teachers and other school officials. Schoolwork was an absolute joke.
So, given the choice between schools like this and better alternatives like those in Norwalk, it’s no wonder that McDowell wanted something better for her son. She is one of millions of parents who are squirming to get out of  the straightjacket of failing schools. In New York City, for example, the vast majority of teachers receive high personnel assessment rankings from administrators even as many incompetent teachers are protected by unionized rubber rooms. Bad teachers are shielded from accountability because adult union leaders want to protect teacher tenure more than they want to educate children.
Rather than empowering parents to choose to send their children away from failing schools, sadly, it is the teachers unions who so often block school choice, threatened by competition. These teacher union machines have created a toxic feedback loop with Democratic politicians who shield schools from true reforms, including curriculum changes that would better equip students with the STEM skills of the future. While they are far from a panacea, charter and parochial schools offer creative and substantive alternatives to the ills of Bridgeport — and, yes, Charlotte.


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Obama Vetoes Bill Allowing 9/11 Victims to Sue Saudi Government

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On Friday, US President Barack Obama vetoed a bill passed unanimously in Congress that is intended to allow Americans to sue foreign governments alleged to be responsible for terrorist attacks in the US. With overwhelming bipartisan support for the bill,…

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Sunday, September 25, 2016

26 Incredible Facts About The Economy That Every American Should Know For The Trump-Clinton Debate

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donald-trump-hillary-clinton-debate-photo-by-vectoropenstockAre you ready for the most anticipated presidential debate in decades?  It is being projected that Monday’s debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton could potentially break the all-time record of 80 million viewers that watched Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter debate back in 1980.  Many Americans probably hope to see some personal fireworks between the two nominees, but the two candidates have both expressed a desire to focus on substantive issues.  There will likely be quite a few questions about the economy, and without a doubt this is an area where Trump and Clinton have some very sharp differences.  The mainstream media would have us believe that the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape, and if that was true that would seem to favor Clinton.  But is it actually true?  The following are 26 incredible facts about the economy that every American should know for the Trump-Clinton debate…

#1 When Barack Obama entered the White House, the U.S. government was 10.6 trillion dollars in debt.  Today, the U.S. government is 19.5 trillion dollars in debt, and Obama still has several months to go until the end of his second term.  That means that an average of more than 1.1 trillion dollars will be added to the national debt during his presidency.  We are stealing a tremendous amount of consumption from the future to make the economy look much, much better than it otherwise would be, and we are systematically destroying the future in the process.

#2 As Obama prepares to leave office, the rate at which we are adding to the national debt is actually increasing.  During the fiscal year that is just ending, the U.S. government has added another 1.36 trillion dollars to the national debt.

#3 It isn’t just the federal government that is on a massive debt binge.  Total U.S. corporate debt has nearly doubled since the end of 2007.

#4 Default rates on U.S. corporate debt are the highest that they have been since the last financial crisis.

#5 Corporate profits have fallen for five quarters in a row, and it is being projected that it will be six in a row once the final numbers for the third quarter come in.

#6 During the month of August, commercial bankruptcy filings were up 29 percent compared to the same period a year ago.

#7 The rate of new business formation in the United States dropped dramatically during the last recession and has hovered at that new lower level ever since.

#8 The Wall Street Journal says that this is the weakest “economic recovery” since 1949.

#9 Barack Obama is on track to be the only president in all of U.S. history to never have a single year when the U.S. economy grew by at least 3 percent.

#10 In August, the Cass Freight Index dipped to the lowest level that we have seen for that month since 2010.  What this means is that the total amount of stuff being shipped around the country by air, by rail and by truck is really dropping, and this is a clear sign that real economic activity is slowing down in a major way.

#11 Capital expenditure growth has turned negative, and history has shown that this is almost always followed by a new recession.

#12 The percentage of Americans with a full-time job has been sitting at about 48 percent since 2010.  You have to go back to 1983 to find a time when full-time employment in this country was so low.

#13 The labor force participation rate peaked back in 1997 and has been steadily falling ever since.

#14 The “inactivity rate” for men in their prime working years is actually higher today than it was during the last recession.

#15 The United States has lost more than five million manufacturing jobs since the year 2000 even though our population has become much larger over that time frame.

#16 If you can believe it, the total number of government employees now outnumbers the total number of manufacturing employees in the United States by almost 10 million.

#17 One study found that median incomes have fallen in more than 80 percent of the major metropolitan areas in this country since the year 2000.

#18 According to the Social Security Administration, 51 percent of all American workers make less than $30,000 a year.

#19 The rate of homeownership in the U.S. has fallen every single year while Barack Obama has been in the White House.

#20 Approximately one out of every five young adults are currently living with their parents.

#21 The auto loan debt bubble recently surpassed the one trillion dollar mark for the first time ever.

#22 Auto loan delinquencies are at the highest level that we have seen since the last recession.

#23 In 1971, 61 percent of all Americans were considered to be “middle class”, but now middle class Americans have actually become a minority in this nation.

#24 One recent survey discovered that 62 percent of all Americans have less than $1,000 in savings.

#25 According to the Federal Reserve, 47 percent of all Americans could not even pay an unexpected $400 emergency room bill without borrowing the money from somewhere or selling something.

#26 The number of New Yorkers sleeping in homeless shelters just set a brand new record high, and the number of families permanently living in homeless shelters is up a whopping 60 percent over the past five years.

Despite all of the facts that you just read, the truth is that there is one particular group of people that have been doing quite well during the Obama years.  I really like how Charles Hugh Smith made this point in one of his recent articles

The top 5% of households that dominate government, Corporate America, finance, the Deep State and the media have been doing extraordinarily well during the past eight years of stock market bubble (oops, I mean boom) and “recovery,” and so they report that the economy is doing splendidly because they’ve done splendidly.

By recklessly creating money out of thin air and pumping it into the financial markets, the Federal Reserve has greatly enriched the elite, but they have also dramatically increased the gap between the very wealthy and the rest of us.  Since he has been in the White House during this time, Barack Obama has gotten the credit for this temporary stock market bubble, and most of the elite love Obama anyway.

But in the process the stage has been set for the greatest economic and financial implosion in U.S. history, and the pain that is coming is going to affect every man, woman and child in this country.

During the debate, Trump and Clinton will talk a lot about tinkering with tax rates and regulations, but those measures are essentially going to be meaningless when compared to the massive economic tsunami that is coming.  The next president is going to inherit the biggest economic problems that this nation has ever faced, and it is going to take a miracle of Biblical proportions to turn the U.S. economy in the right direction.



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