Saturday, November 14, 2020

“Watch This!”

ORIGINAL LINK

Authored by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,

There are times in my career as a collapse observer and systematizer when my running commentary can quite reasonably be pared down to just two words: “Watch this!”

The current severe stage of the financial and economic collapse sequence that was initiated in 2008, which is being artificially masked (no pun intended) by the Covid “pandemic,” and now a hung and fraudulent US election on top of it is just such an occasion: why not just sit back and watch the world burn?

But I happen to be in a particularly good and sprightly mood today, and when I get that way few things can hold me back from holding forth and bloviating prophetically.

Let’s start with a quick jaunt down memory lane. I first realized that the USA was going to follow the general trajectory of the USSR back in 1995. I also immediately realized that the USSR was rather well prepared for collapse whereas the USA was about to be blindsided by it, and so, as a public service, I thought I should warn people. “And a fat lot of good that did!” some of you might immediately exclaim. But you would be wrong: lots of people have written to me to say how much better adjusted they are psychologically now that they have heard and accepted my message, for now they are ready to accept collapse with equanimity and poise. This is sure to make their company less tedious moving forward.

And so I had my “Eureka!” moment in 1995, and a decade later, in 2005, I went public with my observations. I got a surprisingly sympathetic response from some particularly enlightened people (even if they said so themselves). And now, a quarter of a century after my initial insight, as the US enters national bankruptcy and institutional collapse, the whole world is being treated to an end-of-empire spectacular election extravaganza starring none other than the consummate showman and impresario extraordinaire Donald Trump. He used to run beauty pageants, while this one is more of an ugliness pageant, but then beauty is rare and always fades while ugliness is commonplace and usually just gets uglier, making it a much safer bet. And so let’s accept it as a parting present to the world from a vanishing nation that gave us horror flicks, reality television and three-ring circuses with sideshow freaks.

Within the sweeping panoramic tableau of the 2020 election, Trump (our hero) appears bathed in a golden sunset glow of nostalgia for lost American greatness which he forever promises to rekindle. Rest assured, Trump or no Trump, America will never be great again. But Trump’s magic halo extends out from his resplendent orange cranial plumage and enfolds all those who pine for the lost Pax Americana and fear and loathe what America is fast becoming—which is, to put it bluntly, a holding tank for degenerates of every stripe presided over by a freak show. They pine for a time when men were manly and women womanly, when secretaries were flattered when their bosses took time away from their busy schedules to rub up against them, and when everyone was either a WASP, or worked hard on trying to look and act like one, or kept to their assigned station in life and knew better than to get too uppity. They want to believe that the ethnic melting pot can still produce noble alloys, preferably Corinthian bronze, and certainly not clinker or slag.

Arrayed against our fearless orange-hued leader, who at 74 is no spring chicken himself, is a ghoulish gaggle of geriatric gerontocrats.

There is Joe Biden, 77, whose brain ran away and joined a circus some years ago but who imagines himself to be president-elect, or senator, or vice-president, or something. Having spent eight years lurking in the shadows as Obama’s VP, Biden is as fit to lead as a pig is kosher after rubbing its side against a corner of a synagogue. To assist Biden in his dodderings there is his party-appointed nanny, Kamala Harris, a mere slip of a girl at 56.

Also haunting the balcony of the American mausoleum is Nancy Pelosi, 80, who still runs the House of Representatives even though proper employment for her at this point would be up on a pole keeping the birds off the corn. There is also Bernie Sanders, 79, a sad pagliaccio whose permanent role in the political Commedia dell’Arte that the Democratic Party stages every four years is to simulate democracy by cheerleading crowds of young imbeciles in Act I, to feign death after falling off his pogo stick in Act II, and to stagger to his feet, wave and smile for the curtain call.

Last but not least, there is the horrid harpy Hillary Clinton, who is relatively young at 73 but whose putrid smell and cadaverous, ghastly visage are not longer fit for public display except in most delicately contrived circumstances. Hidden even further backstage is the suppurating cadaver of George Soros who, at 90, is still pulling the strings and wreaking havoc in the US and around the world. (His minions had recently spread color revolution to Armenia, in turn causing it to “elect” Pashinyan, a choice imbecile and a traitor, who then lost a big chunk of Armenian territory to Azerbaijan.) I could mention quite a few other financial corpses and oligarchic cadavers, but will refrain, to avoid giving you nightmares. Nobody lives forever, not even Henry Kissinger, 97, and so all we have to do is wait.

In healthy societies, older leaders age out and make room for younger leaders who take over for them after a lengthy period of study and apprenticeship. In sick societies, older leaders cling to power with no one competent there to replace them and once they die are replaced by traitors and criminals. The USSR and the USA are two such examples. The late Soviet serial gerontocracy of Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko, who for a time haunted the balcony of the Lenin mausoleum and, once dispatched to the netherworld, were swiftly replaced by the traitorous duo of blabbermouth Mikhail Gorbachëv and Drunk President Boris Yeltsin, was a tragedy for Russia. The resulting die-off was of the same order of magnitude as the losses incurred during World War II. In accordance with the worn-out cliché about history repeating, the current American gerontocracy is more of a farce than a tragedy, but its results are likely to be no less lethal for the population.

To complete this ghastly tableau, in the ongoing US presidential election, an almost-dead candidate and his charming assistant have been voted for by an army of the undead: voters that have mailed in their ballots in spite of being deceased. I have spot-checked a bit of the incriminating evidence myself, and I am pretty sure that there were over 11,000 such voters in a single Michigan county alone. But this is by no means a local scam: among many other vote-counting shenanigans, it appears that there was a nationwide effort to order mail-in ballots for dead people, fill them out for Biden, and mail them in. You might say that this is a human rights issue: why deprive dead people of their right to vote? Isn’t it about time to stop discriminating against the dead? Perhaps LGBTQ should be amended to LGBTQD for “Dead.” But why stop there? Why not also add a “U” for the unborn and stop this unpardonable discrimination against abortions?

In any case, dead voters for Biden turn out to be just the tip of an entire iceberg of election fraud. There are also the over 1.8 million nonexistent yet registered voters discovered by Judicial Watch back in September. Add to that the faulty voting system, creepily named “Dominion,” which miscounted votes to favor Biden. Add to that the undeservedly kid-gloved and fawning press coverage afforded to Biden and the US mass media’s overwhelmingly hostile attitude toward Trump. Add to that the fraudulent poll data which, just as prior to the 2016 election, was contrived to make a fraudulent Biden victory seem plausible. Add to that the amply funded organizations such as BLM and Antifa (in which the “Anti-” prefix is gratuitous, this organization in fact being very much “Fa…”) which have been ordered to protest, loot and riot in many major US cities, moving their mercenaries from location to location, where they then recruit useful idiots among the locals. What this adds up to is a vast, brazen, carelessly self-incriminating conspiracy to overthrow a sitting president through election fraud.

If you believe even for a moment that I am scandalized, disgusted and outraged by this trampling of the sacred principles of democracy, then pardon me while I shake my head sardonically while quietly chuckling to myself. No, I am not the least bit upset. In fact, this development fills me with optimism for the future. I believe that this ghastly institutional failure is a wonderful development that offers great hope to the rest of the world, and perhaps even to the US itself, although the political environment in the US appears to be rather hopeless irrespective of how horribly or wonderfully its ridiculous electoral system can be made to function.

In any case, it would be futile to try to give the US some semblance of a democratic election system. It would be like trying to clean up a beach by picking up empty beer cans around a beached whale. The presidency, after four years of ham-handed efforts to unseat a president using false evidence, is a failed institution. Congress, which now nonchalantly overspends federal revenue by a factor of three, is a fiscal zombie. The Federal Reserve, which is now a pure pyramid scheme, is a financial zombie. And then there is the rest of the ridiculously bloated US economy, which is waiting for a stiff gust of wind to cause ephemeral wealth to flood out of stocks and bonds and into cash, much of it evaporating in the process and the rest causing a tsunami of consumer price inflation.

In the course of this spectacle, the false image of the US as a shining city on a hill, a beacon for huddled masses yearning to breathe free and a beneficent global policeman safeguarding “universal human rights,” enforcing “universal human values” and spreading “freedom and democracy” around the world is being stomped into the dirt, having excrement poured all over it, and being stomped into the dirt some more. As the curtain descends on this final act of Pax Americana, the image of the orange enfant terrible and the senile puppet with his child-nurse in tow playing on the teeter-totter of electoral dysfunction on the playground of second childhood will forever remain etched into the retinas of the whole world. The whole world will then be able to move on and look for worthier role models and for less corrupt policemen. And that’s progress!

The collapse of the USA will make the collapse of the USSR look like a stroll through a leafy park and a boat ride on a placid pond. I’ve been saying this for 15 years now. My message is still there, for all those who wish to understand what’s been happening and to keep their sanity.



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Democrats Claim Mandate to Alter the Economy & 3 Whistleblowers from Software Company Allege they stole 38 million votes from Trump

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Guest Post by Martin Armstrong

Nancy Pelosi claims that Biden’s victory gives the Democrats a “MANDATE” to alter the economy as they see fit with just 50.5% of the popular if that. This proves that Biden will NOT represent everyone – only the left! I have warned that this has been their agenda from day one. Now, three whistleblowers from the Democratic software company Dominion Voting Systems, have alleged that the company’s software stole 38 million votes from Trump. There are people claiming that Dominion Voting Systems is linked to Soros, Diane Finestein, Clintons, and Pelosi’s husband. I cannot verify any of these allegations so far.

We are standing on the banks of the Rubicon. Civil War is on the other side. There should NEVER be this type of drastic change to the economy from Capitalism to Marxism on 50.5% of the popular vote. NOBODY should be able to restructure the government and the economy on less than 2/3rds of the majority. That would be a mandate. Trying to change everything with a claim of 50.5% of the popular vote will only signal, like the Dread Scot decision, that there is no solution by rule of law. This is the end of civilization and it will turn ugly from here because there is no middle ground anymore. As I have warned, historically the left will never tolerate opposition. These people are pure evil. They do not believe in freedom, but to subjugate all opponents. There is no individual freedom on the left, only the whole (state) is more important than the one (individual).



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How power and money colluded to let a sex-obsessed monster get away with abuse



Recent revelations about billionaire sex offender Jeffrey Epstein’s sweetheart deal with government prosecutors — thanks to a cadre of all-star defense lawyers who basically treated underage accusers like throwaways — are the tip of the iceberg in a scandal of money, power, sex, corruption and

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Who killed Martin Luther King Jr.? His family believes James Earl Ray was framed.



In the five decades since Martin Luther King Jr. was shot dead by an assassin at age 39, his children have worked tirelessly to preserve his legacy, sometimes with sharply different views on how best to do that. But they are unanimous on one key point: James Earl Ray did not kill Martin Luther King.

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Cops worked to put serial sex abuser in prison. Prosecutors worked to cut him a break



Michelle Licata climbed a narrow, winding staircase, past walls covered with photographs of naked girls. At the top of the stairwell was a vast master bed and bath, with cream-colored shag carpeting and a hot pink and mint green sofa. The room was dimly lit and very cold.

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More than half of all wrongful criminal convictions are caused by government misconduct, study finds



When a prisoner is granted their freedom because they were wrongly convicted of a crime, the focus turns to the years — or decades — they spent behind bars, their feelings upon release and their hopes for the future.

ORIGINAL LINK

Jeffrey Epstein and the Decline of the American Experiment



Maybe a good secretary of labor is just hard to find. Either your nominee is opposed by most of Washington, or he’s cutting sweetheart deals with a sexual predator. O.K.

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How they’ll fake the success of the COVID vaccine



I’ve described how the major clinical trials of the COVID vaccine are designed to prevent nothing more than a cough, or chills and fever [1] [2]. The whole plan to gain FDA approval of the vaccine is a stark fraud.

ORIGINAL LINK

From Propaganda To Ego, All Our Major Problems Are Due To Misperception



The Biden transition team responsible for ushering in the nation’s Return to Decency™️ is as packed full of military-industrial complex lackeys and imperialist sociopaths as you’d expect, with one such manipulator being the Obama administration’s “chief propagandist” Richard Stengel.

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Friday, November 13, 2020

TUCKER CARLSON PROVIDES COMPLETE TOTAL PROOF OF WIDESPREAD DEMOCRAT VOTE FRAUD THAT STOLE THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

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Guest Post by Paul Craig Roberts

Tucker Carlson is the ONLY honest media figure in the United States.  No wonder the presstitutes want him arrested.  I am concerned that the criminal Hillary DNC will have him assassinated.  You are simply not permitted to tell the truth in the United States.  To tell the truth in the American media is a capital offense.

This had to be posted on Parler because Twitter, FaceBook, and YouTube will not permit the Fox News report on Vote Theft to be posted.  What more evidence do you need that there is a conspiracy to steal the presidential election from Trump?  If the treasonous and criminal Democrats get away with their coup against democracy, the United States is finished as a country. No Trump voter will ever again think of the US as his/her country. 

https://parler.com/post/f4b23b8551d34921ab7cf9f2833709e0

Here is BitChute’s posting as a backup to Parler: https://www.bitchute.com/video/oV2Bp07vvWxw/ 

Some browser’s refuse to open these alternative sites.  It shows how tight the tech conspiracy against truth is.



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Conservatives wary of Big Tech censorship have new reason to worry post-election.



Conservatives wary of Big Tech censorship got new reasons to worry thanks to the Nov. 3 presidential election. And it isn't just the usual social media suspects to blame.

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"Watch This!"

ORIGINAL LINK
"Watch This!" Tyler Durden Fri, 11/13/2020 - 23:00

Authored by Dmitry Orlov via Club Orlov blog,

There are times in my career as a collapse observer and systematizer when my running commentary can quite reasonably be pared down to just two words: “Watch this!”

The current severe stage of the financial and economic collapse sequence that was initiated in 2008, which is being artificially masked (no pun intended) by the Covid “pandemic,” and now a hung and fraudulent US election on top of it is just such an occasion: why not just sit back and watch the world burn?

But I happen to be in a particularly good and sprightly mood today, and when I get that way few things can hold me back from holding forth and bloviating prophetically.

Let’s start with a quick jaunt down memory lane. I first realized that the USA was going to follow the general trajectory of the USSR back in 1995. I also immediately realized that the USSR was rather well prepared for collapse whereas the USA was about to be blindsided by it, and so, as a public service, I thought I should warn people. “And a fat lot of good that did!” some of you might immediately exclaim. But you would be wrong: lots of people have written to me to say how much better adjusted they are psychologically now that they have heard and accepted my message, for now they are ready to accept collapse with equanimity and poise. This is sure to make their company less tedious moving forward.

And so I had my “Eureka!” moment in 1995, and a decade later, in 2005, I went public with my observations. I got a surprisingly sympathetic response from some particularly enlightened people (even if they said so themselves). And now, a quarter of a century after my initial insight, as the US enters national bankruptcy and institutional collapse, the whole world is being treated to an end-of-empire spectacular election extravaganza starring none other than the consummate showman and impresario extraordinaire Donald Trump. He used to run beauty pageants, while this one is more of an ugliness pageant, but then beauty is rare and always fades while ugliness is commonplace and usually just gets uglier, making it a much safer bet. And so let’s accept it as a parting present to the world from a vanishing nation that gave us horror flicks, reality television and three-ring circuses with sideshow freaks.

Within the sweeping panoramic tableau of the 2020 election, Trump (our hero) appears bathed in a golden sunset glow of nostalgia for lost American greatness which he forever promises to rekindle. Rest assured, Trump or no Trump, America will never be great again. But Trump’s magic halo extends out from his resplendent orange cranial plumage and enfolds all those who pine for the lost Pax Americana and fear and loathe what America is fast becoming—which is, to put it bluntly, a holding tank for degenerates of every stripe presided over by a freak show. They pine for a time when men were manly and women womanly, when secretaries were flattered when their bosses took time away from their busy schedules to rub up against them, and when everyone was either a WASP, or worked hard on trying to look and act like one, or kept to their assigned station in life and knew better than to get too uppity. They want to believe that the ethnic melting pot can still produce noble alloys, preferably Corinthian bronze, and certainly not clinker or slag.

Arrayed against our fearless orange-hued leader, who at 74 is no spring chicken himself, is a ghoulish gaggle of geriatric gerontocrats.

There is Joe Biden, 77, whose brain ran away and joined a circus some years ago but who imagines himself to be president-elect, or senator, or vice-president, or something. Having spent eight years lurking in the shadows as Obama’s VP, Biden is as fit to lead as a pig is kosher after rubbing its side against a corner of a synagogue. To assist Biden in his dodderings there is his party-appointed nanny, Kamala Harris, a mere slip of a girl at 56.

Also haunting the balcony of the American mausoleum is Nancy Pelosi, 80, who still runs the House of Representatives even though proper employment for her at this point would be up on a pole keeping the birds off the corn. There is also Bernie Sanders, 79, a sad pagliaccio whose permanent role in the political Commedia dell’Arte that the Democratic Party stages every four years is to simulate democracy by cheerleading crowds of young imbeciles in Act I, to feign death after falling off his pogo stick in Act II, and to stagger to his feet, wave and smile for the curtain call.

Last but not least, there is the horrid harpy Hillary Clinton, who is relatively young at 73 but whose putrid smell and cadaverous, ghastly visage are not longer fit for public display except in most delicately contrived circumstances. Hidden even further backstage is the suppurating cadaver of George Soros who, at 90, is still pulling the strings and wreaking havoc in the US and around the world. (His minions had recently spread color revolution to Armenia, in turn causing it to “elect” Pashinyan, a choice imbecile and a traitor, who then lost a big chunk of Armenian territory to Azerbaijan.) I could mention quite a few other financial corpses and oligarchic cadavers, but will refrain, to avoid giving you nightmares. Nobody lives forever, not even Henry Kissinger, 97, and so all we have to do is wait.

In healthy societies, older leaders age out and make room for younger leaders who take over for them after a lengthy period of study and apprenticeship. In sick societies, older leaders cling to power with no one competent there to replace them and once they die are replaced by traitors and criminals. The USSR and the USA are two such examples. The late Soviet serial gerontocracy of Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko, who for a time haunted the balcony of the Lenin mausoleum and, once dispatched to the netherworld, were swiftly replaced by the traitorous duo of blabbermouth Mikhail Gorbachëv and Drunk President Boris Yeltsin, was a tragedy for Russia. The resulting die-off was of the same order of magnitude as the losses incurred during World War II. In accordance with the worn-out cliché about history repeating, the current American gerontocracy is more of a farce than a tragedy, but its results are likely to be no less lethal for the population.

To complete this ghastly tableau, in the ongoing US presidential election, an almost-dead candidate and his charming assistant have been voted for by an army of the undead: voters that have mailed in their ballots in spite of being deceased. I have spot-checked a bit of the incriminating evidence myself, and I am pretty sure that there were over 11,000 such voters in a single Michigan county alone. But this is by no means a local scam: among many other vote-counting shenanigans, it appears that there was a nationwide effort to order mail-in ballots for dead people, fill them out for Biden, and mail them in. You might say that this is a human rights issue: why deprive dead people of their right to vote? Isn’t it about time to stop discriminating against the dead? Perhaps LGBTQ should be amended to LGBTQD for “Dead.” But why stop there? Why not also add a “U” for the unborn and stop this unpardonable discrimination against abortions?

In any case, dead voters for Biden turn out to be just the tip of an entire iceberg of election fraud. There are also the over 1.8 million nonexistent yet registered voters discovered by Judicial Watch back in September. Add to that the faulty voting system, creepily named “Dominion,” which miscounted votes to favor Biden. Add to that the undeservedly kid-gloved and fawning press coverage afforded to Biden and the US mass media’s overwhelmingly hostile attitude toward Trump. Add to that the fraudulent poll data which, just as prior to the 2016 election, was contrived to make a fraudulent Biden victory seem plausible. Add to that the amply funded organizations such as BLM and Antifa (in which the “Anti-” prefix is gratuitous, this organization in fact being very much “Fa…”) which have been ordered to protest, loot and riot in many major US cities, moving their mercenaries from location to location, where they then recruit useful idiots among the locals. What this adds up to is a vast, brazen, carelessly self-incriminating conspiracy to overthrow a sitting president through election fraud.

If you believe even for a moment that I am scandalized, disgusted and outraged by this trampling of the sacred principles of democracy, then pardon me while I shake my head sardonically while quietly chuckling to myself. No, I am not the least bit upset. In fact, this development fills me with optimism for the future. I believe that this ghastly institutional failure is a wonderful development that offers great hope to the rest of the world, and perhaps even to the US itself, although the political environment in the US appears to be rather hopeless irrespective of how horribly or wonderfully its ridiculous electoral system can be made to function.

In any case, it would be futile to try to give the US some semblance of a democratic election system. It would be like trying to clean up a beach by picking up empty beer cans around a beached whale. The presidency, after four years of ham-handed efforts to unseat a president using false evidence, is a failed institution. Congress, which now nonchalantly overspends federal revenue by a factor of three, is a fiscal zombie. The Federal Reserve, which is now a pure pyramid scheme, is a financial zombie. And then there is the rest of the ridiculously bloated US economy, which is waiting for a stiff gust of wind to cause ephemeral wealth to flood out of stocks and bonds and into cash, much of it evaporating in the process and the rest causing a tsunami of consumer price inflation.

In the course of this spectacle, the false image of the US as a shining city on a hill, a beacon for huddled masses yearning to breathe free and a beneficent global policeman safeguarding “universal human rights,” enforcing “universal human values” and spreading “freedom and democracy” around the world is being stomped into the dirt, having excrement poured all over it, and being stomped into the dirt some more. As the curtain descends on this final act of Pax Americana, the image of the orange enfant terrible and the senile puppet with his child-nurse in tow playing on the teeter-totter of electoral dysfunction on the playground of second childhood will forever remain etched into the retinas of the whole world. The whole world will then be able to move on and look for worthier role models and for less corrupt policemen. And that’s progress!

The collapse of the USA will make the collapse of the USSR look like a stroll through a leafy park and a boat ride on a placid pond. I’ve been saying this for 15 years now. My message is still there, for all those who wish to understand what’s been happening and to keep their sanity.



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Why is the Covid-19 Death Rate So Low?



INSTANT DOWNLOAD: http://drberg.com/covid-waves (Covid-19 First and Second Wave) Talk to a Dr. Berg Keto Consultant today and get the help you need on your journey. Call 1-540-299-1556 with your questions about Keto, Intermittent Fasting or the use of Dr. Berg products. Consultants are available M

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It doesn’t have to be this way

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This is insane. Even when something dead-nuts safe like Vitamin D finally emerges, irrefutably, to be of massive benefit, what does the UK NHS do? They decide to ship only 400 IU per patient/day.

That’s roughly 1/10th what’s needed to boost serum levels to the safe and effective range of 50 ng/ml.

A ‘futurecast’ from Hannibal Spotsbury explains what comes next.

Also the Drug Which Shall Not Be Named (DWSNBN) is back in the news.  This time from India where it conferred a 90% reduction in Covid cases among high risk health care workers. Add it all up and there’s a TON that we could be doing to effectively limit the spread and severity of Covid…but aren’t.

It doesn’t have to be this way.

Links: Covid and Sun’s incidence https://twitter.com/SebastianHantel/status/1325484241442975750

Vitamin D above 50 ng/ml https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4437692/#:~:text=Without%20significant%20sun%20exposure%2C%20achieving,vitamin%20D%20by%20the%20IOM.

Robin Whittle Vitamin D Twitter https://twitter.com/RobinWhittle3/status/1324455772198072320

Sweden Vit D in food https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2015/05/28/Sweden-to-expand-mandatory-vitamin-D-fortification

The post It doesn’t have to be this way appeared first on Peak Prosperity.



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Why COVID-19 Testing Is a Tragic Waste



Disclaimer: The entire contents of this website are based upon the opinions of Dr. Mercola, unless otherwise noted. Individual articles are based upon the opinions of the respective author, who retains copyright as marked.

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Thursday, November 12, 2020

D.C. law would allow children as young as 11 to consent to vaccine injections

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GettyImages-1197849127.jpg?h=a3133557&it

So long as the child is 'capable of meeting the informed consent standard'

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Everything You Don't Want To Know About COVID Vaccines (Because You Can't Be Bullish Anymore)

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Everything You Don't Want To Know About COVID Vaccines (Because You Can't Be Bullish Anymore) Tyler Durden Thu, 11/12/2020 - 09:20

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

In such a highly polarized, politicized environment, is such a scrupulously objective study even possible?

Now that we've had the happy-talk about Pfizer's messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccine (and noted that Pfizer's CEO sold the majority of his shares in the company immediately after the happy-talk), let's dig into messenger-RNA (mRNA) vaccines which are fast approaching regulatory approval.

Some people have concluded vaccines are not safe, regardless of their source or mechanisms. These people will never take any Covid vaccine.

Others will also decline a vaccine because they've concluded Covid is overblown.

Fair enough. But many other people conclude Covid is dangerous, partly because so little is known about its long-term effects (Long-Covid, Long-Haulers). Covid's low mortality rate may be distracting us from its other more insidious consequences.

Authorities desperate to restart the economy and reassure the populace are poised to approve novel vaccines using a new mechanism to generate an immune response: messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines.

I am not a scientist or clinician but I have followed scientific developments closely for the past 40 years and so I have a basic understanding of this new pathway.

I'm posting links below to articles that describe the mRNA vaccines in greater detail. All these sources are respected journals or media outlets.

Vaccines against viruses work by introducing an inactive virus or viral particle into the bloodstream where this new foreign particle activates our immune system to create antibodies against this specific virus. If the live virus infects us at some later date, our immune systems are already primed to identify and destroy the dangerous virus.

Messenger RNA was only discovered in 1961. DNA is the set of instructions, the "blueprint", and mRNA is a key part of the cellular machinery that copies a strand of the DNA "blueprint" and builds a protein based on the DNA instructions.

Messenger RNA vaccines don't introduce a viral particle to our immune systems--they deliver cellular instructions (i.e. a "blueprint") for a viral particle which our cells reproduce once the mRNA enters our cells and delivers the "blueprint" for assembling the viral particle.

Here's a recent description of this mechanism from The Atlantic magazine:

"Moderna works on RNA vaccines--injecting not proteins but the molecules of nucleic acid that encode the instructions for building the proteins. Your cells use RNA to instruct their builders to make proteins all the time; the RNA is like the blueprints or schematics that tell the workers on the factory floor what to build."

COVID-19 Vaccines Are Coming, but They're Not What You Think. (March 2020)

And here's another description by a doctor writing in the independent.co.uk:

This is the hard-to-swallow truth about a future coronavirus vaccine (and yes, I'm a doctor)

"Moderna's messenger RNA vaccine, on the other hand, is completely new and revolutionary to say the least. It uses a sequence of genetic RNA material produced in a lab that, when injected into your body, must invade your cells and hijack your cells' protein-making machinery called ribosomes to produce the viral components that subsequently train your immune system to fight the virus. In this case, Moderna's mRNA-1273 is programmed to make your cells produce the coronavirus' infamous spike protein that gives the virus its crown-like appearance ('corona' is crown in Latin) for which it is named."

Many in the field see the potential for mRNA to deliver superior vaccines because they can generate T-Cell responses as well as the conventional immune responses to viral particles. They are also easier and cheaper to manufacture, and may be stable at room temperature for a week, unlike the Pfizer vaccine which must be refrigerated at extremely cold temperatures.

The Super Cold Covid Vaccine Distribution Problem

But these are the first mRNA vaccines ever seeking approval for human use, and so there are no long-term studies of what might go wrong down the road.

One concern is the possibility that mRNA vaccines could trigger a generalized immune response (interferon, etc.) rather than just a specific immune response to a specific virus (antibodies, etc.).

Our immune system is extremely complex and I make no claim to have a complete understanding of it. That said, the immune system has several levels of response. A conventional vaccine triggers the production of a specific antibody that "recognizes" a specific invader. In other cases, the immune system can activate an "all hands on deck" generalized response.

The danger is that the mRNA could trigger an "all hands on deck" response that could then cascade into autoimmune disorders in which the immune system goes haywire and starts attacking the body's own cells rather than limiting its destructive capabilities to foreign viruses, bacteria, etc.

One of my MD correspondents recently sent me an email which encapsulates these concerns.

"I've been reading about the Pfizer vaccine.

I've known for a while that it is an mRNA vaccine but it just hit me that it will be the first mRNA vaccine ever approved for human use.

If COVID was a 'Steven King' (kills-everyone) virus, sure, go for it--prevent the deaths and take what comes.

But mortality is low, acute treatments are improving, transmission is preventable, and the greatest risk now appears to be longer term morbidity.

mRNA vaccines by the very nature of their components elicit an interferon response that triggers generalized autoimmunity. This may, in fact, be part of the mechanism of longer term morbidity associated with COVID infection.

Mass introduction of mRNA strands into the populations may indeed reduce acute COVID morbidity and mortality, but how many autoimmune complications will result?

No one knows.

It's never been done before--ever.

It would take years of carefully controlled and limited trials across all ethnic groups to find out.

Is the net good from a vaccine that fewer people die up front but a whole lot more folks suffer long term problems on the back end--especially (as seems likely) boosters will be required.

Shouldn't there be a discussion before 'immunity passports' are mandated?

For that matter, shouldn't we discover how long natural immunity lasts before trying to provoke induced immunity?

I'm dumbstruck that, with the proposed approval timetable, this path is even being considered at a population level, let alone considered without an extensive discussion.

First do no harm."

Indeed. And then there's the self-interest of those seeking rapid approval of the vaccines. As noted in the independent.co.uk article referenced above:

"But perhaps the most important question to ask about Moderna's new messenger RNA vaccine is not scientific nor technical but one of ethics and morality. When it comes to the United States and its private healthcare system, pharmaceutical companies have a long and sordid history of putting profits over people and human lives."

Why would anyone trust that Big Pharma corporations will act in the public good rather than in pursuit of maximizing profits?

The mad rush of profiteering Big Pharma corporations to own the first vaccine approved will create needless and potentially dangerous confusion about which vaccine actually works best over the longer term.

First, A Vaccine Approval. Then "Chaos and Confusion." (NY Times)

"It has not yet dawned on hardly anybody the amount of complexity and chaos and confusion that will happen in a few short months," said Dr. Gregory Poland, the director of the Vaccine Research Group at the Mayo Clinic.

"I can see people reading a lot into even minor differences that could just be statistical chance," said Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida."

The FDA has set the bar very low for Covid vaccines: the vaccine only has to be effective for 50% of those taking it to be approved. But as noted above, Big Pharma companies have mastered the art of statistical legerdemain that skew results so they look far more conclusive than they actually are.

If you've actually pored over Phase III drug trial results (I have), you find uncertainties have been papered over with statistical analysis techniques. Many medications are approved that only work less than half of the time in the real world.

Another healthcare professional correspondent recommended the book Tainted Truth: The Manipulation of Fact In America as a source for understanding how study data are manipulated to get the desired results.

The danger here in my view is the poorly-informed, politically polarized general public will assume a Covid vaccine is essentially 100% effective like a measles vaccine, when the real-world efficacy might be considerably less certain. Maybe the vaccines will only work for 75% of the recipients. How will anyone be able to tell if they're one of the 25% for whom the vaccine offers only false confidence?

No one knows how long the immunity generated by these vaccines will last. These two uncertainties generate insurmountable doubts, very likely muddying the waters and making it more difficult to ascertain which vaccines actually work and for how long they offer immunity.

America's choice to optimize healthcare profiteering (a.k.a. "shareholder value") over the public good is about to reap a whirlwind. Our educational deficiencies won't help, as a populace which has a limited grasp of statistics and basic biology has few means to sort the wheat of real-world results from the chaff of self-interested PR.

Maybe the mRNA vaccines will fulfill their promise the first time out of the gate, with near-perfect efficacy and long-lasting immunity. The problem is it will take a long time and careful, de-politicized, independently confirmed studies to reach any trustworthy conclusions.

In such a highly polarized, politicized environment, is such a scrupulously objective study even possible? In a system that rewards self-serving statistical analysis and "first to market," a system where Big Pharma insiders reap millions of dollars selling their stock on the PR of happy-talk, is it even possible to have truly objective studies of a vaccine's efficacy and long-term effects?

It seems doubtful. And that's a problem that extends far beyond the unknowns of mRNA vaccines.

Here are some links on mRNA vaccines:

*  *  *

My recent books:

A Hacker's Teleology: Sharing the Wealth of Our Shrinking Planet (Kindle $8.95, print $20, audiobook coming soon) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Will You Be Richer or Poorer?: Profit, Power, and AI in a Traumatized World
(Kindle $5, print $10, audiobook) Read the first section for free (PDF).

Pathfinding our Destiny: Preventing the Final Fall of Our Democratic Republic ($5 (Kindle), $10 (print), ( audiobook): Read the first section for free (PDF).

The Adventures of the Consulting Philosopher: The Disappearance of Drake $1.29 (Kindle), $8.95 (print); read the first chapters for free (PDF).

Money and Work Unchained $6.95 (Kindle), $15 (print) Read the first section for free (PDF).

*  *  *

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Donald Trump’s Stealthy Road to Victory

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Guest Post by Graham Allison

As the counting of votes in Arizona, Georgia, and especially Pennsylvania continues, most of the press and punditry have concluded that Vice President Biden has won the 2020 election. Certainly, a substantial majority of the rest of us are suffering from “election fatigue” and eager for this drama to be over. Without disagreeing with the conventional wisdom about the final tally when all the legal votes are counted, I believe the current consensus is missing the fact that Trump has a second, viable stealthy road to victory. I’m reluctantly betting that the debate about who won will continue until at least January 6 when slates of electoral college members are opened in Washington, and most likely beyond that as whatever is decided then is appealed by the loser to the Supreme Court. My conclusion reflects the analysis of my colleague in the Applied History Network at the Belfer Center which is below.

As he notes, this stealthy road follows in the footsteps of a number of previous contested American elections, especially the 1876 election that pitted Tilden v. Hayes. Then as now, each state must decide on a group of electors to meet with a joint session of Congress on January 6 where the winner of the presidential election is declared. The normal practice in a state where Biden won the popular-vote total would be for state election officials to certify the results and send a slate of electors to Congress. But state legislatures have the constitutional authority to conclude that the popular vote has been corrupted and thus send a competing slate of electors on behalf of their state. The 12th Amendment to the Constitution specifies that the “President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted.” That means that in the case of disputes about competing electoral slates, the President of the Senate—Vice President Pence—would appear to have the ultimate authority to decide which to accept and which to reject. Pence would choose Trump. Democrats would appeal to the Supreme Court.

Alternatively, if at that point, no candidate has the required 270 electoral votes, the 12th Amendment stipulates, “the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote.” Currently, Republicans have a state delegation majority with 26 of the 50 states and they appear almost certain to keep that majority in the new Congress. A vote of the states would then elect President Trump for a second term. And again, Democrats would appeal that outcome to the Supreme Court.

As the analysis below notes, these issues are even more complex. But to repeat the bottom line: both the words of the 12th Amendment, and historical precedent offer a credible, stealthy, winding road that could lead to Trump’s victory and a second term. Or as the saying goes: the opera ain’t over till the fat lady sings.

***

A Contested Election Structurally Favors Republicans in 2020.

  • I project a 20% chance of a contested election outcome leading to a victory for President Trump.
    • Whereas consensus sees contestation via Constitutional means as a far, remote possibility, a scenario invoking the 12th amendment is an easier path for Republicans to pursue than currently recognized.
  • Trump has consistently during his reelection campaign questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, claiming the election will be “rigged” and “the most corrupt election in the history of our country.” This is most likely part of a strategy to set the stage for a contested outcome.

    – On Nov. 1 in North Carolina, President Trump decried recent Supreme Court rulings allowing states such as Pennsylvania to continue counting ballots after election day, stating, “We’re going to go in the night of, as soon as that election’s over, we’re going in with our lawyers.”

    • Most significant, President Trump has clearly discussed and been briefed on a strategy to contest the election via Constitutional means, saying at a Sept. 26 rally in—where else—Pennsylvania: “And I don’t want to end up in the Supreme Court and I don’t want to go back to Congress either, even though we have an advantage if we go back to Congress — does everyone understand that? I think it’s 26 to 22 or something because it’s counted one vote per state, so we actually have an advantage. Oh, they’re going to be thrilled to hear that.”
      • Politico reports, “In private, Trump has discussed the possibility of the presidential race being thrown into the House as well, raising the issue with GOP lawmakers, according to Republican sources.”
  • Trump is correct: Republicans currently have 26-state delegation majority to Democrats’ 22 state delegations in a scenario in which the election is decided by a House of Representatives vote on the presidency according to state delegations.
  • Contested outcome scenario built upon a dispute Pennsylvania result.
    • A conceivable contested election could involve multiple states’ electoral votes, but Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes would almost certainly figure into such a scenario.
      • 1876 precedent: Coincidentally, in the contested election of 1876 between Democrat Samuel J. Tilden and Republican Rutherford B. Hayes —the best precedent available for a possible contested 2020 election (not the 2000 election)—20 electoral votes were under dispute, albeit from four different states: all electors from Florida, Louisiana, and South Carolina, and one elector from Oregon.
      • House of Representatives Office of the Historian: “Both Tilden and Hayes electors submitted votes from these three states, each claiming victory in violent and confused elections. The Democratic-controlled House and the Republican-dominated Senate came to a compromise on how to resolve the problem by creating an Electoral Commission: a bipartisan committee of House Members, Senators, and Supreme Court Justices who would determine the final disposition of the yet-unassigned electoral votes…[Beginning on Feb. 1, 1877], Congress met in a Joint Session 15 times in the next month, until—acting on the decision of the commission—it awarded the disputed vote to Hayes, granting him the victory by one vote.”
        • The resolution was decided via a backroom deal in which the Republicans agreed with Democrats to end Reconstruction in return for winning the presidency.
    • In a contested 2020 election, Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor and Republican state legislature could send competing electors to be counted at the Jan. 6, 2021 joint session of Congress.
      • Similar to 1876, the Republican Senate and Democratic House would disagree on which electors to accept. However, in the media environment of 2020, it would be virtually impossible for the two houses of Congress to reach a backroom deal to resolve their dispute as happened in 1876.
    • Democrats would argue that the Electoral Count Act of 1877—passed in order to avoid a repeat of 1876—favors the electors certified by state governors; in this case, the Democratic governor of Pennsylvania certifying electors voting for Biden.
    • Republicans, on the other hand, would argue that the Electoral Count Act is unconstitutional, as the Constitution clearly allows state legislatures to certify electors; in this case, the Republican state legislature of Pennsylvania certifying electors voting for Trump.
    • Under the Constitution, there exists no mechanism to resolve a dispute in which the two houses of Congress cannot agree upon a certified set of electors, and there is no Constitutional role for the courts, including the Supreme Court.
    • Republicans, supported by legal and historical precedent, would argue that under the language of the 12th amendment, which reads, “The President of the Senate shall, in the presence of the Senate and House of Representatives, open all the certificates and the votes shall then be counted,” the President of the Senate—Vice President Mike Pence—has the sole discretion to break a deadlock between the Senate and the House, and to either accept or dismiss disputed electors.
      • As Edward B. Foley explains, in such a scenario, “Some Republicans take the especially aggressive position that Mike Pence, as President of the Senate, has the unilateral authority under the Twelfth Amendment to decide which certificate of electoral votes from Pennsylvania is the authoritative one entitled to be counted in Congress and that he, accordingly, will count the certificate from the electors appointed by the state legislature because the Constitution authorizes the state legislature to choose the method of appointing electors. These Republicans point to the historical pedigree of this position, observing that Republicans made the same argument during the disputed election of 1876 and that at least some recent law journal scholarship has supported this position. Unembarrassed by the apparent conflict of interest caused by Mike Pence simultaneously being a candidate for reelection and arbiter of the electoral dispute, these Republicans observe that Thomas Jefferson was in essentially the same position during the disputed election of 1800 and yet the Twelfth Amendment left this provision in place when Congress rewrote the procedures for the Electoral College afterwards. While it is true that an incumbent Vice President might have a direct personal stake in the electoral dispute to be resolved, the Republicans argue, at least the glare of the spotlight is focused on whatever the vice president does in this situation, and everyone will be able to judge whether the vice president acted honorably or dishonorably in resolving the dispute.”
        • “This interpretation of the Twelfth Amendment is bolstered, moreover, by the further observation that the responsibility to definitively decide which electoral votes from each state are entitled to be counted must be lodged ultimately in some singular authority of the federal government. If one body could decide the question one way, while another body could reach the opposite conclusion, then there inevitably is a stalemate unless and until a single authority is identified with the power to settle the matter once and for all. Given the language of the Twelfth Amendment, whatever its ambiguity and potential policy objections, there is no other possible single authority to identify for this purpose besides the President of the Senate. This role could have been vested in the chief justice of the United States, as is the constitutional authority to preside over the trial of an impeachment of the president. Or disputes of this nature could have been referred directly to the Supreme Court, as a singular corporate body, for definitive resolution there. But the Constitution does neither; nor does it make any other such provision. Thus, according to this argument, the inevitable implication of the Twelfth Amendment’s text is that it vests this ultimate singular authority, for better or worse, in the President of the Senate. Subject only to the joint observational role of the Senate and House of Representatives, the President of the Senate decides authoritatively what ‘certificates’ from the states to ‘open’ and thus what electoral votes are ‘to be counted.’”
    • Vice President Pence would then either accept the electors submitted by the Pennsylvania Republican legislature voting for Trump, or dismiss them as disputed and not have them counted. In this new, reduced total of electors, a remaining majority still delivers Trump a victory.
    • If a majority is not reached, then under the 12th amendment, “the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote.” If Republicans maintain their current 26-state House majority by state delegation, they are thereby able in this scenario to reelect President Trump for a second term.
    • Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi could refuse to attend with House Democrats the Jan. 6 joint session of Congress, thereby indefinitely delaying the aforementioned process, and—in a different scenario—assume the presidency as Acting President under the 20th amendment and under the succession statute enacted by Congress. This sets up a battle of dueling inaugurations on Jan. 20, 2021.
  • For a detailed description of these contested scenarios, see Edward B. Foley, “Preparing for a Disputed Presidential Election: An Exercise in Election Risk Assessment and Management,” 8/31/19, 51 Loyola University Chicago Law Journal 309 (2019), Ohio State Public Law Working Paper No. 501.
    • For simplified distillations of a contested outcome favoring Trump, see:
      • Fareed Zakaria, “Trump could stay in power even if he doesn’t win the election. The Constitution allows it.,” Washington Post, 9/24/20.
      • Graham Allison, “Trump Might Not Want to Relinquish Power,” The Atlantic, 7/12/2020

Graham T. Allison is the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is the former director of Harvard’s Belfer Center and the author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?



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FOUR STAGES OF FRAUD

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“There’s no evidence of fraud!”

“Maybe there is evidence but it doesn’t prove voter fraud.

“Ok, it proves voter fraud but the fraud isn’t widespread.”

“Umm, ok, it’s widespread but it didn’t change the outcome of the election…”

— John Cardillo (@johncardillo) November 9, 2020

Hat tip Les P



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The Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst

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The Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst Tyler Durden Thu, 11/12/2020 - 13:00

Authored by Patrick Hill via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The $100B+ Housing Debt Bubble Is Going To Burst

“Being self-employed, I don’t like to add extra bills or burdens, and with a moratorium, there’s no guarantee that later I won’t be further into debt.”

- Lucy, freelance photographer, Colorado – July 2020

Lucy’s concern about accumulating debt echoes across America. Millions of renters and homeowners are anxious about paying both their monthly housing bill and a ballooning debt balance.

Based on present missed payment rates, consumers will accumulate at least $100B in housing debt by January 2021. The following model describes a set of linked health, social and economic events. These events are likely to unfold in next 6 months.  An uncontrolled wave of virus infections drives the cascading economic impact:

Virus growth uncontrolled > economic activity contracts > unemployment rises

> personal income falls > consumers miss rent and mortgage payments

> rent and mortgage payment moratoriums fail > consumers use credit cards to make payments

> small business apartment landlords & homeowners default on mortgages (debt bubble bursts)

> consumer spending dives

Our analysis starts by examining the virus 3rd wave and a likely increase in lockdowns.

Virus Growth Uncontrolled

On November 2st the U.S. had a 44% increase in daily COVID-19 to 93,581. The chart below indicates the second wave of infections did not decline to the first wave low. Thus, experts forecast a third winter wave peak of cases will be higher than the second spring wave peak.

Source: New York Times – 11/3/20

Hospitalizations are rising in 42 states. Nineteen states report their highest hospitalization rate since the pandemic began in March.  Uncontrolled virus infections will result in more partial or full lockdowns of intense social activity businesses including, hotels, restaurants, bars, theaters, sports stadiums, indoor arenas, offices, transit, airlines, hair salons, and personal services.  An indication of what the U.S. may face soon is unfolding now in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France. These EU countries are tightening pandemic restrictions at levels not seen since last June.  Meantime, U.S. businesses, such as internet entertainment, technology services, eCommerce and, socially distanced grocery stores, will continue to grow.

Economic Activity Contracts

The U.S. Economy is contracting according to the latest Sales Manager Index. The next chart shows a U.S. Sales Manager survey of national economic activity jumping in the 3rd quarter and then rolling over into contraction.

Source: World Economics, The Daily Shot – 10/22/20

Components of the Sales Manager Index that are falling or flat include business confidence contracting, market growth flat, sales growth flat, profit margins weakening, and staffing levels falling. Accordingly, staffing levels are critical to watch as more layoffs mean an increase in unemployment.

Unemployment Rises

The latest report from the Department of Labor for state unemployment claims and continuing benefits shows a high level of unemployment continuing. The trend chart below shows that while regular state benefits are declining, extended emergency benefits increase for long-term jobless workers.

Sources: Department of Labor, J.P. Morgan, The Daily Shot – 10/23/20

There are 22.6M workers on continuing unemployment assistance. This level of continuing unemployment is 22 times the level of 1M a year ago. Considering 2 -3M workers who have not qualified for extended benefits or have used up their extended benefits the number of eligible workers for unemployment is closer to 25 – 26M. Twenty-six million workers unemployed is about 17.3% of the labor force.  Labor experts set the unemployment rate at 20% if other workers who did not apply for benefits are added. High unemployment rates are driving personal income down.

Personal Income Falls

Consumer personal income received a boost from several sources.  The CARES Act provided $1,200 stimulus checks, enacted the Payroll Protection Program targeting small businesses, a $600 weekly increase in unemployment insurance, and other emergency loans.  The following Oxford Economics analysis indicates that a budget squeeze began in October.

Sources: Oxford Economics, The Daily Shot – 10/8/20

Oxford forecasts that household income will fall by 3% below pre-COVID levels beginning in November.  The model shows how tight household budgets will become by January 2021.  

Consumers Miss Rent and Home Mortgage Payments

The Mortgage Bankers Association reports for the 2nd quarter of 2020 rental income losses of $9.1B and mortgage payments missed of $16.3B.   For the 3rd quarter, rental losses were $9.1B and $19.4B in missed mortgage payments.  For the 4th quarter, we forecast a continuing $35B total for both missed rental income and mortgage payments. The total forecast for both rental income losses and missed mortgage payments by 2021 is $90B.

However, Moody’s Analytics forecasts $70B in missed rental payments alone by 12.8M renters by January 2021.  Confirming the 12.8M figure, a study by Joint Center For Housing Studies at Harvard reports that 12.1M renter households have at least one at-risk-industry worker. Due to the wide variance in estimates, we forecast at least $100B in rental and mortgage debt due in January 2021.

Our forecast of $100B in looming housing debt builds on our earlier analysis in a recent Executive – Employee Catch 22 post. In that post we identified two consumer segments, workers and professionals. We noted all homeowners reported no-confidence in making next month’s payment.  The analysis indicates that 16% of professional homeowners reported little or no-confidence in making mortgage payments for September. Yet, workers reported twice the no-confidence rate of professionals at 34%. 

Rent and Mortgage Moratoriums Fail

The CARES Act mortgage and rent moratorium covered homes and apartment buildings secured with federal loans through July 31st.  Renters obtained payment relief, while landlords continued to pay mortgage loans from their funds or relief act assistance.   In mid-August, President Trump signed an executive order instructing the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to identify households where infections may increase and mandate that household members be protected from eviction to ensure public safety.  Since the federal moratorium ended and the CDC policy has been put into effect, thousands of landlords have filed suits challenging the CDC authority to protect renters from eviction. 

Courts in some states are finding in favor of landlords causing evictions to rise. Moody’s Analytics forecasts that 16% of all renters will face eviction by January 2021.  States like California and Washington passed blanket rent moratoriums in effect until January 1st,  2021.  Rent debt is not erased in any case. The California moratorium calls for landlords to receive 25 % of the debt balance in January and 50% in February, followed by 25% increments to zero. With no stimulus assistance to renters and distressed homeowners, housing debt will likely continue to soar.

Consumers Use Credit Cards To Make Payments

Credit card usage by renters increased by 70% last spring. As renters received stimulus payments, the rate dipped to 50%. However, the credit card payment rate has risen to 65% due to the end of stimulus assistance.

Sources: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve, Census Bureau, The Wall Street Journal – 10/27/20

Consumers building credit card debt while unemployed or on reduced income assistance is unsustainable.  Many consumers will be unable to make their credit card payments. Defaulting on their credit cards will hurt their credit score and make it more difficult to obtain other housing because they have an eviction record.  A surge in credit card defaults will increase losses for credit card issuing banks as well. Today, missed rent payments force millions of small business landlords to fall behind in their mortgage payments.

Small Business Landlords Default on Mortgages

When renters miss payments, their landlords must continue to pay the mortgage on their building.  Property corporations with access to low-interest bank loans or bond markets will have a cushion during this rent loss period.  However, many small business landlords are financially stressed. Small business landlords own 22M properties, which are usually 1- 4 unit buildings Local small unit landlords finance their purchases with savings, other business profits, or family and friends. Only 12% of small unit buildings were covered by the CARES Act rent moratorium, which ended on July 31st.  So, some small business landlords have taken action to evict tenants.

Facing a cash flow crunch, anxious small business landlords applied for CARES Act business emergency loans to mitigate income loss.  The Terner Center for Housing Innovation at UC Berkeley survey of small business landlords found 40 % of owners are not confident they can pay operating costs over the next few months. So, small business landlords may evict tenants to find a paying renter.  However, by 1st quarter of 2021, there are likely to be millions of people evicted or with poor credit so, finding another paying tenant could be problematic.  Small business landlords facing declining income and poor prospects for new paying tenants will likely default on their mortgage. There is likely to be a surge in multi-unit buildings for sale, causing a decline in multi-unit building construction.

Home Owners Default on Mortgages

Homeowners enter into forbearance plans with their lenders to avoid penalties and fees when they are likely to be delinquent on their payments. Black Knight reports there are 3M mortgages in forbearance as of October 31st. This forbearance rate is ten times the 300k mortgages in forbearance in February of 2020.  Most of these mortgages are approaching their six-month renewal date from last March and April.  Homeowners can apply for a six-month renewal under the CARES Act.  However, after March 2021, the forbearance period ends, and homeowners must begin paying their balance owned while continuing monthly payments.

Eighty percent of present forbearance payers have applied for a six-month extension. With unemployment increasing and lockdowns forecast, there may be an increase in the number of forbearance plans.  Other homeowners who don’t qualify for forbearance are delinquent in making payments. Mortgage delinquencies outside of forbearance are up by 107% YTD as of October. By the end of 1st quarter, 2021 defaults are likely to rise significantly.

Consumer Spending Dives

A perfect economic storm is gathering strength from the health, social and financial forces we have identified in this post.  The corona virus continues to penetrate all facets of American life, driving uncertainty in the economy.  Until we have a national virus containment program implemented, the pandemic will force economic activity down.  Without a stimulus package from Congress, millions of unemployed workers, renters, and small businesses will struggle. With the bottom 80% of consumers facing severe economic headwinds, consumer spending will likely dive in the first half of next year.

For investors, this is the time to prepare for a possible severe economic storm coming this winter. Scott Minerd, Global CIO at Guggenheim, observes that we have a pause now giving us time to prepare for an economic whirlwind:

the relative calm  we feel in the markets right now isn’t the end of the storm, it is just the eye, it may seem like there is no storm at all…yet the worst is yet to come.

*  *  *

Patrick Hill is the Editor of The Progressive Ensign, https://theprogressiveensign.com/ writes from the heart of Silicon Valley, leveraging 20 years of experience as an executive at firms like HP, Genentech, Verigy, Informatica, and Okta to provide investment and economic insights. Twitter: @PatrickHill1677, email: patrickhill@theprogressiveensign.com



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Gallup poll: Fewer than half likely to comply with COVID-19 lockdown

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stay-home-sign-lockdown-coronavirus-pand

(NEWSMAX) – Americans are less likely to comply with another coronavirus lockdown than they were in the spring, with fewer than half saying in a new poll that they're very likely to stay home this time around, according to a new Gallup Poll released as record numbers of cases skyrocket nationwide.

In the poll, taken between Oct. 19 and Nov. 1, 49% of respondents said they'll be very likely to stay home for a month if it's recommended after an outbreak in their communities, reports CNN. This is down from 67% in the spring.

Another 18% said they are somewhat likely to comply, but a third said they are not likely to obey lockdown orders.

Read the full story ›

The post Gallup poll: Fewer than half likely to comply with COVID-19 lockdown appeared first on WND.



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New Pentagon Top Adviser Wants US Troops Out Of Syria "Immediately"

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New Pentagon Top Adviser Wants US Troops Out Of Syria "Immediately" Tyler Durden Thu, 11/12/2020 - 15:45

With Esper out the door, Trump's newly in office acting Secretary of Defense is already making waves given who he's just brought on board.

The new acting Pentagon chief, Christopher Miller, has just brought on as his senior adviser Ret. Army Col. Douglas Macgregor. Crucially Macgregor is on record as wanting American troops out of Syria immediately (gasp, the horror!), and further wants a rapid draw down in Afghanistan as well as in places like the Korean Peninsula. 

"President Trump's newly installed acting Pentagon chief is bringing on a senior adviser in a sign the administration wants to accelerate the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Middle East before the end of his presidency in January, three people familiar with the move told Axios," Jonathan Swan writes.

US troops occupying Syria. AFP/Getty

It appears Trump has finally and much belatedly put someone at the helm whose own views reflect those of the 2016 Trump campaign trail. He had been the first Republican nominee in history to lambast Bush's Iraq War as a huge "disaster" while running on a 'bring the troops home' non-interventionist message.

Of course critics then and now have mischaracterized the president as "isolationist" - which has long become a negative slur in establishment foreign policy circles. 

Currently it's believed there's anywhere from 800 to possibly up to 2,000 US personnel in northeast Syria, where according to past Trump statements they are there to "secure the oil" and ensure the permanent defeat of ISIS. Increasingly they've been bumping up against both Russian and Syrian Army patrols in a mission that doesn't seem to have a defined end goal or exit strategy.

Macgregor has also said the U.S. needs to pull its troops out of Syria immediately and that America had no national interest there. https://t.co/grODh5w3aN

— Jonathan Swan (@jonathanvswan) November 11, 2020

Here's how Axios presented the supposedly "worrisome" and "divisive" views of Macgregor

In a 2019 interview with Fox's Tucker Carlson, Macgregor said he would advise the president to get out of Afghanistan "as soon as possible," including removing the U.S. embassy from Kabul, and that talking to the Taliban was unnecessary.

  • Macgregor also said the U.S. needs to pull its troops out of Syria immediately and America had no national interest there.
  • He said, "We need to listen very carefully to the Iranians ... find out what their interests are and look for areas where we can cooperate" and that the U.S. needs to "turn the operational control of the [Korean] Peninsula militarily over to President Moon and the Koreans."

Already Biden's transition team is strongly signaling it would reverse course on some Trump draw downs, most notably the reduction of about 12,000 US soldiers from Germany.

Meanwhile The Intercept published a story on Wednesday citing an unnamed administration official who said the latest Pentagon shake-up was preparation for significant troop draw downs across various hotspots. 

Personnel changes at the Pentagon, an official told The Intercept, would help clear the way for a more loyal apparatus to carry out Trump’s goals. https://t.co/wNbRPI04Bn

— The Intercept (@theintercept) November 12, 2020

"The president is taking back control of DoD. It’s a rebirth of foreign policy. This is Trump foreign policy," the official said.

Lee Fang at The Intercept underscored that "The personnel changes, the official claimed, would help clear the way for a more loyal Pentagon apparatus to carry out Trump’s goals, including the last-minute withdrawal of troops from foreign conflicts."



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