Thursday, July 30, 2020

Why we should believe none of the polls



The November election is already decided, say many in the left-leaning media, and President Donald Trump has lost, almost 100 days before Election Day.

Some polls show Democratic presidential standard-bearer Joe Biden leading by as much as 13 points, "a nearly-insurmountable lead" that leftist pundits say Mr. Trump almost certainly cannot overcome. This has led some on the right to despair.

Both major parties are in transition. Democrats are transforming from liberalism to globalist socialism, and abandoning the blue-collar working class. Republicans are metamorphosing from globalism to pro-worker American populism.

Gallup this month declared that "since January Americans' party preferences have shifted dramatically. … What had been a 2-percentage point Republican advantage … has become an 11-point Democratic advantage."

Polls reflect what a tiny representative "sample" of only a few hundred people say, and this year many conservatives are afraid to share their opinions. If pollsters "oversample" Democrats, their polls will be even more inaccurate than in 2016.

Democrats depend on minorities. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won only 37% of white votes, and lost because she got "only" 89% of black votes. Rasmussen finds that only 77% of blacks approve of Biden; Trump could win 14-21% of black votes and 41% of Hispanic votes.

The leftist media love polls, which turn politics into sports, a horse race. Polls let media manufacture their own exclusive "news" on slow news days, and promote their biases by selecting slanted questions and leftist respondents to manipulate, moralize and demoralize their audience.

How accurate are political polls?

Consider our "democracy." Roughly 1 in 4 "eligible voters" (citizens 18 or older) are not registered to vote, many because they do not want to be on jury duty lists. Of those who register, up to half do not vote. Of those who vote, less than half vote for the winner.

Recent presidents, therefore, have typically been chosen by roughly 18% of eligible voters – only slightly more than 1 potential voter in 6.

In the U.S. House of Representatives, no bill can be passed without approval of at least 50% plus one of all lawmakers present, a quorum. By this standard, any president "elected" by only 18% of eligible voters should be illegitimate.

We have no national vote for president. Under the Electoral College, we choose our chief executive through 50 separate state elections plus one in the District of Columbia. It is irrelevant, therefore, that in 2016 Hillary Clinton won a slightly larger "nationwide popular vote," mostly due to one-third of America's welfare recipients, who reside in Democrat-dominated California. A "national poll" is meaningless.

In recent days, statewide polls show Trump beating Biden with 60% of the vote in Kentucky, 52% in Montana, 50% in Michigan, 49% in North Carolina, Texas and Georgia and 48% in Pennsylvania. The left-of-center national media never report these polls.

President Trump in the highly credible Rasmussen poll has risen to a statistical tie with Biden.

Only 37% of Biden voters are for Biden; 60% say they are voting against Trump, whose supporters suffer no such enthusiasm gap. As Nina Turner, former co-chair for Sen. Bernie Sanders, says, voting for Biden is like eating a "bowl of s***." America, wake up and smell corrupt Joe.

American Thinker pundit Brian Joondeph sees many leftist-media-paid polls as rigged. "The Washington Post-ABC News poll," he writes, "sampled 1,000 adults. Not likely voters, not registered voters, not even eligible voters, just whoever answered the phone."

"They also oversampled Democrats by 6%," Joondeph continues, "and their sample contained 399 Trump supporters compared to 522 Biden supporters, over a 25% advantage for Biden."

Likewise, the Quinnipiac University poll "oversampled Democrats by 10 points, 34 to 24%." Even the Fox News poll "oversampled Democrats by 4 points," writes Joondeph. Those polled recently by Monmouth University favored Biden by 13%, but they believed Trump would win the election. Huh?

A libertarian Cato Institute YouGov national survey finds that 62% of Americans are afraid to share their political views. Nowadays, ordinary opinions can get you threatened, stalked, attacked, fired, firebombed, or even killed by internet radicals and violent mobs. This fear is shared by 77% of Republicans, 59% of Independents and even 52% of Democrats. Only a majority (58%) of hard-core leftists feel free to express themselves.

Would you tell a telephoning stranger who claims to be a pollster if you support President Donald Trump? Many millions of Americans would not. So why believe any of today's polls?

Lowell Ponte is a former Reader's Digest Roving Editor. His articles have appeared in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and other major publications. His latest paper co-authored with Craig R. Smith, "The Secret War," shows how to rethink several areas of investment to protect and grow your savings against little-known economic threats. For a free, postpaid copy, call toll-free 800-630-1492.


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